The Alabama Crimson Tide is in a strong position to make the 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP) as championship weekend approaches. Ranked No. 11 in the latest CFP rankings, Alabama secured a crucial win over the Auburn Tigers in last Saturday’s Iron Bowl, with a 28-14 victory. This, combined with an upset loss by the Miami Hurricanes to Syracuse, has left Alabama with a good chance to claim the final at-large playoff spot.
However, one lingering question remains: what happens if Dabo Swinney’s Clemson Tigers defeat the SMU Mustangs in the ACC Championship on Saturday night in Charlotte? As of now, SMU is the projected ACC champion and No. 3 seed in the CFP rankings, sitting at No. 8 overall. If Clemson beats SMU, the CFP selection committee could face a difficult decision between a two-loss SMU team and a three-loss Alabama squad for the final playoff spot.
A potential Clemson win in the ACC title game could create a “doomsday scenario” for the selection committee, according to Myerberg. This is the only situation where Alabama could miss out on a playoff berth, with a direct comparison between the Crimson Tide and SMU. The Mustangs would have a strong case, with only two losses on the season, both to ranked teams, and a nine-game winning streak featuring six victories over bowl-eligible teams.
On the other hand, Alabama’s case for the playoff is bolstered by its victories over ranked teams such as Georgia, South Carolina, Missouri, and LSU. Additionally, the prestige of being Alabama likely carries weight with the selection committee. Myerberg suggested that Alabama’s strong resume would likely edge out SMU, giving the Crimson Tide the benefit of the doubt, a tradition established in the four-team playoff era.
Fox Sports analyst Joel Klatt shares a similar outlook, believing that Clemson will defeat SMU, and Alabama will secure the final playoff spot. Klatt stated that in a head-to-head comparison, SMU would lose out to Alabama, reinforcing his belief that the Crimson Tide would make the playoff regardless of the outcome of other games.
If the weekend’s results go according to plan, the debate between Alabama’s and SMU’s resumes might not even arise. The committee would likely prefer a situation where no such tough decisions need to be made, leaving the playoff race clear-cut.
Ultimately, Alabama’s fate could hinge on Saturday’s ACC Championship. If SMU wins, the playoff picture will remain straightforward, with Alabama likely advancing. However, if Clemson pulls off the upset, a fierce debate between the Crimson Tide and the Mustangs could make the selection process far more complicated.
