The Detroit Lions have had an extraordinary 2024 season, securing the NFC’s top seed for the first time in franchise history. Despite key injuries, particularly on defense, and a tough schedule, the Lions have been dominant. Their head coach, Dan Campbell, is known for his strong leadership, while offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn are expected to become head coaches soon. Quarterback Jared Goff has transformed into one of the league’s top signal-callers, and the team’s roster is stacked, even with some injuries. However, they now face the Washington Commanders and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels in this Saturday’s divisional round, and it may not be as easy as the odds suggest.
The Lions are favored by 7.5 points at home, but Daniels could make this game much closer than many anticipate. Selected second overall in the 2024 draft, Daniels has impressed with one of the best rookie quarterback seasons in NFL history. Through both the regular season and playoffs, he has completed 355 of 515 passes (68.3%) for 3,836 yards, 27 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. His playmaking extends beyond the pocket, with 927 rushing yards and six touchdowns on the ground. His ability to keep defenses on their toes has been a key factor in his success, and Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn noted Daniels’ calm demeanor and ability to make plays while having fun on the field.
Daniels poses specific challenges for the Lions’ defense, which relies heavily on man coverage (44.9%, the highest in the NFL). Against man coverage, Daniels has been outstanding, completing 75 of 134 passes for 987 yards, nine touchdowns, and only one interception. The Lions also like to blitz, but Daniels has been even more effective against teams that bring five or more pass-rushers. He has thrown for over 1,000 yards, nine touchdowns, and just one interception against such pressure, posting an impressive passer rating of 134.6.
Additionally, the Lions have struggled with mobile quarterbacks. They’ve allowed 449 rushing yards, 167 yards after contact, and six touchdowns to quarterbacks on designed runs or scrambles, ranking among the worst in the league in these categories. Campbell acknowledged that defending against running quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen is a tough task for any team, and Daniels will add to that difficulty.
The Commanders might look to exploit another area where the Lions’ defense is vulnerable: no-huddle and empty sets. Daniels leads the NFL in both categories, with 415 no-huddle dropbacks and 137 empty set dropbacks. The Lions, however, have been solid in these situations, allowing a low opponent passer rating against both no-huddle and empty formations. Despite that, the Commanders’ quick tempo and creative play-calling may present a unique challenge for Detroit’s defense, especially with their ability to catch defenses off guard.
Another factor that could keep the game close is Washington’s success on fourth down. The Commanders have the NFL’s best conversion rate, converting 87.0% of their fourth downs (20 of 23). This gives them confidence to take more risks, knowing they have a high chance of converting on crucial downs.
Daniels, for his part, remains unphased by the pressure of the postseason. He approaches the game with the same calm confidence that has defined his rookie year. While many may view the game as a huge challenge, Daniels keeps his focus on the process and his routine, ensuring that he and his team are prepared for whatever comes their way.
In conclusion, while the Lions have been dominant, Jayden Daniels and the Commanders have several tools that could make this game much closer than expected. From his efficiency against man coverage and blitzes to his ability to exploit the Lions’ defensive weaknesses, Daniels will be a key factor in making the Commanders a tough opponent for Detroit.
