November 17, 2024

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Jaguars vs. Lions Preview: 3 Crucial Matchups, Key Statistical Insights The Jaguars have leaned heavily on dime personnel this season, using it the ninth most in the NFL with 94 snaps (9.4 snaps per game). However, this defensive approach has been a significant vulnerability, as the Jaguars’ run defense from dime is the worst in the league, allowing a staggering +1.13 EPA per rush. Even more troubling, 91% of those runs come on third down. Ben Johnson won’t hesitate to capitalize on this weakness, using it as an opportunity to dominate on the ground in clear passing situations. With the Jaguars’ interior defensive line struggling to control the line of scrimmage, they’ll have a tough time holding up in this matchup. I expect Johnson to unleash his offense with 10- or 11-personnel, spreading the field wide, and potentially using Amon-Ra St. Brown in motion out of the backfield, a move he’s utilized before. This will allow the Lions’ offensive line to overpower a defense already compromised by six defensive backs. On the flip side, it’s challenging to assess the Jaguars’ offense with Mac Jones stepping in for the injured Trevor Lawrence. With second-year back Tank Bigsby also sidelined, the Jaguars will need to manufacture success on the ground. While they rank in the middle of the pack in various rushing metrics (14th-18th in EPA per rush, 10+ yard runs, Stuff Rate, and Success Rate), their advanced statistics tell a revealing story. The Jaguars rank a dismal 30th in Yards Before Contact (YBCo/Att) at just 0.77, but they lead the league with 3.94 Yards After Contact (YACo/Att). This indicates that their offensive line struggles to create initial push, but their running backs—particularly Travis Etienne and Bigsby—excel at breaking tackles and turning negative plays into positive yardage, which will be critical against a tenacious Lions defense. Digging deeper into the running backs’ production, using FTNFantasy’s DVOA metrics, the Jaguars rank 10th in Second-Level Yards per Attempt (1.30) and 5th in Open Field Yards per Attempt (1.17). Both Bigsby and Etienne have been exceptional at creating yards after contact—Bigsby leads the NFL with 4.9 YACo/Att, while Etienne ranks second with 4.0 YACo/Att. Even without Bigsby, Etienne’s explosive ability to churn out yardage will keep the Lions’ defense on its toes. With their backs capable of turning broken plays into big gains, Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn will stress the importance of precise tackling and relentless pursuit. The Lions’ defense has been one of the league’s most dominant at limiting YACo/Att, ranking second overall with 2.41 YACo/Att. Their formula for success has been gang-tackling and preventing additional yardage, a strategy that has proven effective over the last two seasons. If all three levels of Detroit’s defense execute their responsibilities—stopping the run and forcing Mac Jones to take the reins—the Lions should be able to suffocate the Jaguars’ offensive game plan. Players like Josh Paschal, Jack Campbell, Alex Anzalone, and Carlton Davis III will play pivotal roles in keeping the Jaguars’ ground game in check.

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