On Sunday evening, BYU basketball issued an early availability update for the top 15 clash against no. 1 Arizona. According to BYU’s availability report, starting guard Kennard Davis is doubtful.
Davis has recently struggled for BYU. Over the last three games, he has averaged 2. 3 points per game and is 0-for-12 from three. Davis has been the missing piece for a BYU club aiming to progress from excellent to elite. When Davis is hitting three-pointers, BYU is practically difficult to defend.
The question tag is reserved for players with a 50% possibility of playing. Davis’ condition will be updated on Monday evening before kickoff.
KenPom’s Predictions for BYU vs Arizona.
KenPom, the industry standard in college basketball analytics, forecasted BYU against Arizona. KenPom estimates BYU’s odds of winning at 40%, with a final score of 82-80.
BYU is ranked #15 by KenPom. The Cougars rank 11th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 24th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Wildcats lead KenPom with an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of fourth and a defensive efficiency rating of third. On paper, Arizona has no weaknesses.
KenPom Predicts the Remainder of BYU’s Schedule
The game-by-game KenPom forecasts for the remainder of BYU’s schedule are listed below.
vs Arizona: 40% (BYU victory probability).
@ Kansas: 36%
@ Oklahoma State: 73%
vs Houston: 54%
@ Baylor: 65%.
vs Colorado: 92%.
@ Arizona: 17%
vs. Iowa State: 53%
vs UCF: 84%
@ West Virginia: 64%
@ Cincinnati: 69%
Texas Tech: 67%
KenPom expects BYU to finish 8-2-4. 8 in their final 13 games. That would bring BYU’s projected record for the entire season to 24. 2-6. 8.
Projected Win Totals
BYU has already won 17 games. With 12 games remaining, BYU might win up to 29 regular-season games if they win out. The odds of BYU winning 25, 26, or 27 games are shown below.
18 victories: 100%
19 wins: 100%.
20 wins: 99. 9%.
21 victories: 99. 0%.
22 victories: 95. 5%.
23 wins: 85. 6%.
24 victories: 66. 5%.
25 wins: 41. 5%.
26 Wins: 19. 0%
27 victories: 5. 8%.
28 wins: 1. 0%.
29 victories: 0. 1%.
A reasonable goal for BYU would be to finish with 25 or 26 victories. That would bring BYU’s season record to 25-6 or 26-5, placing them in a strong position for a top four seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Odds to Win the Big 12
According to ESPN BPI, BYU basketball has the fourth best chance of winning the Big 12.
Arizona: 72% chance to win the Big 12
Houston: 35%
Iowa State: 11%.
Texas Tech: 7%.
BYU 6%.
Kansas 3%
The Cougars will play Arizona and Kansas this week in two games that are critical for both conference tournament and NCAA Tournament seeding.
