When BYU visits Tucson on Wednesday for a rematch with Arizona, they will start their existence without Richie Saunders. In overtime, BYU defeated Colorado 90-86. Now that Richie is no longer present for almost the whole game, the competition level has increased dramatically.
Arizona is in a similar situation. Dwayne Aristode, a rotation player, and Koa Peat, a star freshman and Arizona’s second-highest scorer, will both be out for Wednesday’s game. Arizona’s eight-man lineup is reduced to six regular players in their absence.
On ESPN, the game starts at 7 p. m. MT.
The Numbers of BYU and Arizona
Arizona KenPom: 3
NET Ranking: 3
Record: 23-2
Top Wins: Florida (N), UCLA (N), UConn (A), Auburn (H), Alabama (N), San Diego St (N), TCU (A), UCF (A), West Virginia (H), Arizona State (H/A), Oklahoma State (H)
Kansas (A), Texas Tech (H)
AP Position: 4
22 is the BYU KenPom score.
Ranking according to the NET: 20
Record: 19-6 (7-5 Big 12)
AP Ranking: 23
PomKen Prediction: Arizona 87, BYU 76; 86% chance of Arizona winning
Point Spread: Arizona, -12. 5
Total Score: 165. 5
Recap of the First Game
The score of the first game was 86-83 in favor of Arizona. The Wildcats’ lead reached as high as 19, but BYU came back strong and had a shot blocked at the basket with less than 5 seconds left that would have given BYU the advantage. Rob Wright and AJ Dybantsa had a difficult time shooting the ball that game. AJ scored 24 points for BYU, but his field goal percentage was only 6 out of 24. With just 7 points on 3-16 shooting, Rob had his worst performance of the year. Richie Saunders grabbed 9 boards, five of which were offensive, and scored 18 points. In the second half, Kennard Davis hit five three-pointers.
Freshman Brayden Burries had 29 points, while his backcourt partner Jaden Bradley scored 26 as BYU was decimated by Arizona’s backcourt. Nonetheless, BYU took several steps to defeat Arizona. With 13 more field goal attempts, nine more 3-pointers, one less turnover than the Wildcats, and 16 offensive rebounds to Arizona’s 7, BYU dominated the game. Arizona’s victory in the free throw contest—26–32 to BYU’s 12–19—flipped the game in their favor.
Arizona Overview
After beginning 23-0, Arizona has now suffered their last two defeats. They are excellent on both ends of the court, coming in at number three in the Big 12 for offensive efficiency and number one for defensive efficiency. The Wildcats’ success depends heavily on their ability to rebound. They have prevailed in the rebounding contest in every game they have played this year. In the previous two games, Texas Tech and Kansas maintained that closeness, which enabled them to defeat Arizona in other areas and win the game. The free throw differential in Provo gave Arizona the victory, even though BYU and Arizona were almost tied in rebounds.
This team’s biggest flaw is the three-ball. Arizona’s 23. 6% three-point field goal attempt rate is the lowest in the Big 12 by a wide margin, and the team’s 32% three-point shooting percentage in conference games (15 in Big 12) is among the league’s lowest. Arizona has shown this year that they can defeat excellent teams without the three ball, therefore they don’t need it to win. However, Arizona is at risk when teams compete with them on the glass and outshoot them from the arc or the foul line. In their victory over Arizona, Texas Tech hit nine more three-pointers. The Jayhawks had about the same number of rebounds and three-pointers as the Wildcats, but they converted 13 more free throws.
In order for BYU to have a chance at winning, they need to be competitive on the glass once more. In the first game, BYU did that and had a chance to score the game-winning goal, but Brayden Burries made a fantastic defensive play to secure the victory for Arizona.
Prediction
This game could see BYU crushed. Richie led the Cougars to victory over no elite opponents, and they are now the fourth-best team in the country without him. Arizona has a strong starting lineup even without Koa Peat. Tobe Awaka is the best rebounder in the nation, and Burries and Bradley together scored 55 points in Provo. Awaka typically enters the game off the bench behind Peat, and his raw power and motor make him a threat on the glass. Without Peat, he will play more minutes in this game.
Perhaps I’m looking at things through rose-colored glasses, but I believe that BYU has a chance to be competitive in this game. Even though the loss of Richie is a greater blow to BYU than the absence of Peat and Aristode is to Arizona, it does benefit BYU. In this game, I believe the most important thing is to be aggressive on the glass and try to get Awaka into foul trouble. The two are inseparable. Awaka has the highest offensive rebound percentage in the country, but he also commits an average of 5. 4 fouls every 40 minutes, making him one of the Big 12’s most foul-prone players. By getting Awaka in early foul trouble, BYU will compel Arizona to either use inexperienced players behind him or have him play with fouls, which may cause him to foul out or be less aggressive.
This is yet another perspective through blue goggles. After suffering consecutive losses, some BYU supporters have speculated that Arizona would be furious. I believe the opposite; Arizona may be close. If BYU defeats them, they will be facing four straight defeats because their next game is in Houston. Arizona faces a lot of pressure to win this match.
Without Richie, BYU is clearly inferior, but they will have the opportunity to surprise Arizona with a few things early in the game that the Wildcats haven’t seen on tape. Even more so than usual, AJ will be targeted, and BYU will need his playmaking skills to locate available teammates.
I predict Arizona will win, but I believe BYU will be motivated and maintain a competitive game.
