Labaron Philon was both right and wrong in stating that Alabama and Texas Tech are similar. Both the Crimson Tide and the Red Raiders enjoy shooting the three-ball. The two squads have a noticeable disparity in tempo of play.
Analyzing the Red Raiders is difficult due to JT Toppin’s season-ending ailment. As Nate Oats remarked following the victory over Hofstra, Alabama would solely focus on the Red Raiders without Toppin. Texas Tech lost its leading scorer with six minutes remaining in a game against Arizona State on February 17. They are 4-3 since losing Toppin, with the three defeats occurring in their most recent four contests.
In the six games since Toppin’s injury and prior to their Big Dance triumph over Akron, the Red Raiders have averaged 71. 3 points per game. That is not an outcome for a shootout triumph over Alabama. The Red Raiders will seek to counter with a tempo that disrupts the Crimson Tide’s usual offensive flow.
According to Ken Pomeroy’s system, Alabama ranks fourth in the country for adjusted tempo. Texas Tech is ranked 252nd. The Red Raiders may win for two reasons if Alabama slows down enough. They are a good defensive squad that shoots three times better than the Crimson Tide.
Red Raiders shoot threes better than the Crimson Tide.
Texas Tech has made 39. 7% of its three-pointers this season, placing them fourth among Division One schools. Alabama’s three-point percentage ranks 83rd in the country at 35. 7%. Statistically, the Red Raiders are excellent at three-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot from outside the arc similarly to Tennessee. These figures explain why Texas Tech began as a modest favorite in betting markets.
The Red Raiders will not outperform the Crimson Tide in terms of rebounding. Alabama has a larger team, with only one Texas Tech regular taller than 6’6″. Luke Bamgboye stands 6’10 tall and weighs just 200 pounds. The Red Raiders feature two strong 6’6 players, both weighing around 225 pounds. At the worst, Alabama’s team rebounds should be around equal. A smaller Akron squad had 11 offensive rebounds against the Red Raiders.
Jaylen Petty led Texas Tech in scoring in the victory against Akron, recording 24 points. Guard Christian Anderson is the Red Raiders’ greatest offensive weapon. As a third-team All-American, Anderson is comparable to Labaron Philon.
Two reliable computer models predict the game to be a one-point victory for the game, one by Texas Tech and the other by the Crimson Tide. Alabama may win by three to five points if the Crimson Tide has a substantial speed advantage. The Red Raiders are unable to win a shootout.
