Our Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks preview and prediction is ready! It’s Week 4, On Paper.
Before their Week 5 bye, the Detroit Lions face a major challenge. The Seattle Seahawks visit for a “Monday Night Football” showdown, aiming to stay undefeated.
For the Lions, this is their toughest test yet, while the Seahawks are facing their strongest opponent so far.
So, who has the upper hand “On Paper”? Let’s dive into the Lions vs. Seahawks Week 4 preview and prediction.
Note: We’re only using 2024 stats, so all numbers are from this season unless otherwise stated. DVOA data is not yet adjusted for defense strength—just basic efficiency rankings for now. Next week, adjustments based on opponent strength will be factored in.
Lions passing offense (20th) vs. Seahawks passing defense (1st)
The Lions’ passing offense hasn’t started strong, a drop from their top-10 performance over the past two seasons. Last week showed improvement, though it was against a weak Arizona pass defense.
Here’s a breakdown of their efficiency metrics after three weeks:
– Passer rating: 80.0 (23rd)
– Yards per attempt: 6.9 (22nd)
– EPA/pass: -0.09 (20th)
– Success rate per dropback: 47.0% (14th)
This shows a below-average performance in most areas.
The reason isn’t obvious. Jared Goff’s clean-pocket play has struggled but improved last week. Goff’s 51.9 PFF grade ranks 30th among 35 QBs, and his turnover-worthy plays percentage is 4.2%, tied for 11th worst. He needs to protect the ball better.
Pass protection is still solid, among the best in the NFL, with only four sacks allowed (tied-4th) and a seventh-ranked PFF pass blocking grade (72.8). However, without Frank Ragnow, Goff faces a tougher challenge against Seattle’s pass rush, though Graham Glasgow is a capable replacement.
Seattle’s pass defense looks great on paper, but their competition hasn’t been strong—none of the QBs they’ve faced had a rating above 80. While they dominated these opponents, context matters.
Some notable stats:
– PFF coverage grade: 1st (89.9)
– Pass rush win rate: 3rd (56%)
– Passer rating allowed: 2nd (67.0)
– EPA/pass: 1st (-0.45)
– Dropback success rate: 1st (33.9%)
Seattle’s secondary, led by Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen, is loaded with talent. But injuries to key defenders like Boye Mafe and Leonard Williams could impact them this week.
Player to watch: Devon Witherspoon vs. Amon-Ra St. Brown. These two could be matched up nearly all game, especially when Seattle plays nickel.
Advantage: Seahawks +1. Detroit’s passing issues might continue this week, but injuries on Seattle’s defense could give Goff some time to throw.
Lions run offense (3rd) vs. Seahawks run defense (3rd)
Detroit’s run game has excelled, ranking eighth in yards per carry (4.8) and fourth in EPA per rush (+0.11). The Lions’ rushing attack is fueled by their strong offensive line and dynamic backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
Seattle’s run defense has shown vulnerability, despite a high DVOA ranking. Other stats suggest an average unit, ranking 17th in EPA/rush (-0.05) and 14th in yards per carry (4.4). Leonard Williams’ absence would be a significant blow.
Player to watch: Boye Mafe. Known for his pass rush, he’s also a stellar run defender and will challenge Detroit’s offensive line.
Advantage: Lions +2. Expect Detroit to rely heavily on their run game, especially with Seattle’s defensive injuries.
Seahawks passing offense (8th) vs. Lions passing defense (10th)
Seattle’s passing attack, led by DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, has been strong, though they haven’t faced elite defenses yet. They rank seventh in success rate (52.0%).
Seattle’s weakness lies in their pass protection, ranking 29th in pass-blocking grade and 31st in pass-block win rate. This could be an issue against Detroit’s formidable pass rush, which ranks third in PFF pass rush grade.
Player to watch: WRs vs. CBs. This will be Detroit’s biggest test, as they face a talented Seahawks receiving corps.
Advantage: Draw. Detroit’s pass rush could mitigate the Seahawks’ explosive plays, but expect Seattle to hit on some big plays.
Seahawks run offense (8th) vs. Lions run defense (4th)
Seattle’s run game hasn’t been efficient, ranking 25th in yards per carry (3.9) and 29th in success rate. Their offensive line struggles in run blocking, but Kenneth Walker’s return should help.
Detroit’s run defense is elite, ranking fourth in YPC (3.6) and EPA/run (-0.19). They remain a nightmare for opposing running backs.
Player to watch: DJ Reader. He could exploit Seattle’s vulnerable interior offensive line.
Advantage: Lions +2.5. Detroit’s run defense has a clear edge, especially against a struggling Seattle run game.
Last week’s prediction:
I went 2-1 straight up and 1-2 against the spread. I underestimated Detroit’s run defense and their advantage in the passing game.
This week’s prediction:
Lions come out with a +3.5 advantage. I’m confident in their edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball, though I expect another low-scoring game. Prediction: Lions 23, Seahawks 17.
