Mike McCarthy appeared to be in the worst possible situation following one of the worst home losses in the team’s history during a season when his future was already in question. After the Cowboys’ 47-9 loss to the Detroit Lions, Jerry Jones attempted to swiftly call off the hounds, saying he was “not even considering” firing McCarthy. But history indicates that McCarthy should not feel comfortable despite this vote of confidence.
There are some fascinating similarities between that year and this one. McCarthy is in his fifth year with the team, while Phillips was there for four. The previous year, Dallas lost to the Vikings in the playoffs in a humiliating 34-3 fashion. The Packers also humiliated the 2023 Cowboys in January of last year. The coach’s future was an issue going into both clubs’ seasons, and things did not go well.
The following elements point to the possibility that Jones will ultimately decide to fire McCarthy:All of the embarassing losses for the Cowboys are occurring at home. In contrast to Phillips, who struggled in away games, McCarthy’s teams are struggling at Jones’ stadium of pleasure.
McCarthy joined the company more like a hired mercenary, much like Phillips. In contrast to many coaches who shared a bond with Jones or had ties to the Cowboys, McCarthy was hired mostly due to his Super Bowl ring and the belief that he would improve the coaching under the previous administration.
Dallas will not be changing its roster much because QB Dak Prescott and WR CeeDee Lamb have signed long-term contracts. There is basically just one way for Jones to communicate.
Fourteen years have passed since Phillips was fired, which
Despite the fact that this would seem to make McCarthy’s seat even hotter than Phillips’, there is one important element that may act as a buffer. Jason Garrett was hand-picked to take Phillips’ place after Jones let him go.
It was no secret that Garrett was Jones’ preferred candidate to take over as head coach when Dallas hired him as its offensive coordinator in 2007. Garrett was more to Jones than simply another coach, having ties to the team dating back to his father’s days as a scout in the 1960s and 1970s. Part of Jones was relieved to see Phillips in the big chair, which eased the separating process.
Not nearly as obvious is the succession plan after McCarthy. Mike Zimmer, who was a member of the coaching staff in the 1990s and has a long history in Dallas, is not a likely candidate going forward. Unlike Garrett, defensive backs coach Al Harris is not a “Jones guy,” but he has developed a sizable fan base who support his candidacy for the position. Additionally, he has never held the post of coordinator.
You could make the case for letting Harris manage the defense in the same way that giving Garrett some head-coaching reps in 2010 made sense after a disappointing season. That might be possible with Zimmer as head coach and Harris as DC, but does Jones really think Harris will be a part of the team in the long run?
Garrett was someone we knew for sure, but we do not know for sure anymore.
Jones might already be focused on someone else, like Ben Johnson, the offensive coordinator for the Lions, who just destroyed his team. You had to wonder whether Johnson was holding out for a better opportunity to present itself when he declined all of the head coaching positions that were available to him during the previous offseason. And everyone was aware that 2024 would likely be McCarthy’s final year in Dallas due to his dismissal or lack of a new contract.
One reason Jones might not end it all is McCarthy’s contract that is about to expire. If Jones does not find a better alternative—or at least one he likes—he may choose to wait it out.
Again, again, McCarthy is not Garrett. There is not another coach who has shared the same unique bond with Jones, and McCarthy is not even close to Dave Campo in terms of organizational loyalty. He was brought in with the express purpose of outperforming Garrett and leading the squad to the next level, but he has generally fallen short of that goal.
The Cowboys still enter their bye week at 3-3 and with the NFC East appearing very winnable, despite our current state of distress. If nothing else, continuity and the expectation that returning players like DaRon Bland and Micah Parsons will improve the team’s performance may be what preserve McCarthy. Maybe taking a week off may allow you to spend more time in the
believe that the team’s performance would be improved by returning players like DaRon Bland and Micah Parsons. Maybe a week off will give the lab team more time to work through some problems and prepare for the upcoming 11 games much better than the previous six.
Ultimately, keep in mind what we have discussed over the 2024 offseason. Why would the front management hold the coach responsible when they appeared uninterested in winning this season? If the plan was to just get through this phase and begin again with a new partner in 2025, then we have just moved forward on that timeline. That strategy was never going to be ideal, and all we have to do now is live with the results of those decisions.Is Mike McCarthy safe, then? Do not rely your decision on anything Jerry Jones says, please. He never hesitates to divert attention and proceed by saying whatever sounds sense at the time. He was “all in” on the 2024 season, and it is possible that his stated faith in McCarthy was equally misplaced.
