The Detroit Lions are projected to win the Super Bowl in 2024, according to computer models.
ESPN conducted 20,000 simulations of the next season using their Football Power Index (FPI) ratings and randomly picked one season to anticipate how this year will unfold. The results were quite positive on the Lions.
According to ESPN’s simulated season, the Lions would have a 13-4 record, a first-round bye in the NFC after winning the division, and their first Super Bowl victory over the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Lions gained the reputation of being a clear top-four team entering the 2024 season based on their performance in 2023 and long-term roster stability while correcting the team’s shortcomings in both the draft and free agency. The Lions re-signed Jared Goff,
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell, and Taylor Decker to keep their explosive offense intact, while adding Carlton Davis III, Terrion Arnold, Ennis Rakestraw Jr., and Amik Robertson to a struggling secondary unit. They also retained both coordinators, Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, despite both interviewing for head coaching jobs.
ESPN’s analytics predict the continuity will lead to another successful season for the Lions’ offense, with Goff flourishing once more in Johnson’s scheme, while the defense improves with a better secondary and a breakout season for defensive end Aidan Hutchinson.
“The combination led the Lions to 13 wins and the top seed in the NFC,” Seth Walder wrote about a possible scenario. “Detroit took care of upstart Chicago in the divisional round before settling the score in the NFC title game with San Francisco to advance to New Orleans and Super Bowl LIX.”
The simulation shows the NFC North as the most competitive division in football, with the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears joining the Lions in the playoffs and the Vikings bottoming out and receiving the first overall pick. In the scenario, the Lions defeat the 7-seed Bears in the divisional round, and Green Bay loses the wildcard to the Buccaneers.
The Lions then face the 49ers again in the NFC title game, but this time at Ford Field, and Detroit wins 30-24 in front of what must be one of the most raucous, enthusiastic crowds imaginable.
Then, it projects the Lions to win the Super Bowl in storybook fashion.
In the hypothetical, the Chiefs are up 28-14 midway in the fourth quarter, but the Lions score twice, take the lead on a successful 2-point conversion, and shut down Patrick Mahomes to win the Lombardi Trophy.
“After the second of Gibbs’ touchdowns cut Kansas City’s lead to eight points, Campbell went for two and converted, cutting the deficit to six,” Walder said. Goff’s 8-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Kalif Raymond gave the Lions a 29-28 lead with three minutes left in the game.
For once, Mahomes did not get the storybook ending he desired. After a quick first down, the Chiefs faced a fourth-and-10 from their own 39-yard line. Mahomes’ pass to Rashee Rice was blocked by Detroit safety Brian Branch, resulting in a 29-28 victory for the Lions and their first NFL title since 1957.
With the season beginning in six days against the Los Angeles Rams, Lions supporters will be hoping that the season pans out just as the computers predicted in this simulation.
