Jaguars vs. Lions Preview: 3 Crucial Matchups, Key Statistical Insights The Jaguars have leaned heavily on dime personnel this season, using it the ninth most in the NFL with 94 snaps (9.4 snaps per game). However, this defensive approach has been a significant vulnerability, as the Jaguars’ run defense from dime is the worst in the league, allowing a staggering +1.13 EPA per rush. Even more troubling, 91% of those runs come on third down. Ben Johnson won’t hesitate to capitalize on this weakness, using it as an opportunity to dominate on the ground in clear passing situations. With the Jaguars’ interior defensive line struggling to control the line of scrimmage, they’ll have a tough time holding up in this matchup. I expect Johnson to unleash his offense with 10- or 11-personnel, spreading the field wide, and potentially using Amon-Ra St. Brown in motion out of the backfield, a move he’s utilized before. This will allow the Lions’ offensive line to overpower a defense already compromised by six defensive backs. On the flip side, it’s challenging to assess the Jaguars’ offense with Mac Jones stepping in for the injured Trevor Lawrence. With second-year back Tank Bigsby also sidelined, the Jaguars will need to manufacture success on the ground. While they rank in the middle of the pack in various rushing metrics (14th-18th in EPA per rush, 10+ yard runs, Stuff Rate, and Success Rate), their advanced statistics tell a revealing story. The Jaguars rank a dismal 30th in Yards Before Contact (YBCo/Att) at just 0.77, but they lead the league with 3.94 Yards After Contact (YACo/Att). This indicates that their offensive line struggles to create initial push, but their running backs—particularly Travis Etienne and Bigsby—excel at breaking tackles and turning negative plays into positive yardage, which will be critical against a tenacious Lions defense. Digging deeper into the running backs’ production, using FTNFantasy’s DVOA metrics, the Jaguars rank 10th in Second-Level Yards per Attempt (1.30) and 5th in Open Field Yards per Attempt (1.17). Both Bigsby and Etienne have been exceptional at creating yards after contact—Bigsby leads the NFL with 4.9 YACo/Att, while Etienne ranks second with 4.0 YACo/Att. Even without Bigsby, Etienne’s explosive ability to churn out yardage will keep the Lions’ defense on its toes. With their backs capable of turning broken plays into big gains, Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn will stress the importance of precise tackling and relentless pursuit. The Lions’ defense has been one of the league’s most dominant at limiting YACo/Att, ranking second overall with 2.41 YACo/Att. Their formula for success has been gang-tackling and preventing additional yardage, a strategy that has proven effective over the last two seasons. If all three levels of Detroit’s defense execute their responsibilities—stopping the run and forcing Mac Jones to take the reins—the Lions should be able to suffocate the Jaguars’ offensive game plan. Players like Josh Paschal, Jack Campbell, Alex Anzalone, and Carlton Davis III will play pivotal roles in keeping the Jaguars’ ground game in check.

The Jaguars have been using dime personnel at the ninth highest rate in the league, with 94 snaps (9.4 snaps per game). However, this formation has been their Achilles’ heel when it comes to defending the run. From dime, they have the worst run defense in the NFL, allowing a staggering +1.13 EPA per rush, with 91% of those runs occurring on third down. It’s clear that Ben Johnson won’t need much convincing to exploit teams in these obvious passing situations. Given the Jaguars’ struggles, particularly in the interior defensive line, I don’t anticipate them holding up well at the point of attack—especially in this game.

I expect Johnson to open with 10- or 11-personnel, going four-wide, and potentially even using Amon-Ra St. Brown motioned into the backfield, as he’s done previously. This would allow his offensive line to assert itself against a defense that’s already vulnerable, rolling out six defensive backs against the run.

On the other side of the ball, it’s tough to make a solid prediction for the Jaguars’ offense, especially with Mac Jones stepping in for Trevor Lawrence. With the absence of second-year back Tank Bigsby, the Jaguars will need to find a way to succeed on the ground. They sit in the middle of the pack for most rushing metrics (ranking between 14th and 18th in EPA per rush, 10+ yard runs, Stuff Rate, and Success Rate), but some of their advanced stats tell an interesting story. The Jaguars rank 30th in Yards Before Contact (YBCo/Att) with just 0.77, but they lead the league with a 3.94 Yards After Contact (YACo/Att). This suggests that while their offensive line struggles to generate push up front, their running backs excel at breaking tackles and creating yards on their own, which should be music to the ears of defensive linemen like D.J. Reader.

Looking deeper into the running backs’ effectiveness, using FTNFantasy’s DVOA metrics, the Jaguars are 10th in Second-Level Yards per Attempt (1.30, gained between 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage) and 5th in Open Field Yards per Attempt (1.17, gained more than 10 yards past the line). A key to their success has been the ability of both Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne to create yards after contact. Bigsby leads the league with 4.9 YACo/Att, and Etienne isn’t far behind in second place with 4.0 YACo/Att, which means the drop-off won’t be drastic despite Bigsby’s absence.

With both backs capable of breaking tackles and extending plays, defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn will surely emphasize sound tackling and collective effort. Fortunately for the Lions, their defense has been built to stop exactly this kind of running back success. Detroit ranks second in the NFL in limiting YACo/Att, with a stellar 2.41. Their success in gang-tackling and preventing ball carriers from gaining extra yards has been a key part of their defensive identity over the past two seasons. The Lions’ defense should thrive if all three levels—defensive line, linebackers, and secondary—do their job, making Mac Jones the focal point of the offense while putting the Jaguars in unfavorable down-and-distance situations. Key players like Josh Paschal, Jack Campbell, Alex Anzalone, and Carlton Davis III will need to be on point for the Lions to contain the Jaguars’ run game.