A Deep Dive into the Key Matchups Shaping the Game
The Detroit Lions are riding high on a seven-game winning streak as they prepare to face the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 11. With the Lions also boasting a four-game winning streak against the Jaguars dating back to 2012, history seems to favor Detroit. However, the Jaguars, despite a challenging season, present unique dynamics that could make this clash anything but predictable. Let’s explore the three key matchups and dive into the statistics that could define the game.
Tale of Two Defenses: Can the Jaguars Contain Jared Goff?
Jacksonville’s defensive struggles this season have been glaring, particularly in pass defense. Without star cornerback Tyson Campbell for several early games, the Jaguars allowed opposing quarterbacks to carve through their secondary. A few telling metrics highlight these struggles:
106.2 passer rating allowed (32nd in the NFL)
69.9% completion percentage allowed (31st)
7.2 yards per pass (32nd)
These stats indicate a defense failing to generate pressure or disrupt passing lanes. Despite these issues, recent weeks have shown signs of improvement. Over the past three games, the Jaguars have allowed just an 84.6 passer rating (9th best in the league) and limited opponents to five passing touchdowns in four outings.
For Lions quarterback Jared Goff, who is coming off a five-interception performance, this matchup presents an opportunity to bounce back. Still, he must navigate a Jaguars defense showing resilience and growing cohesion in its secondary. The question remains: Will the Lions exploit Jacksonville’s weaknesses, or will the Jaguars’ improving form disrupt Goff’s rhythm?
A Dime-A-Dozen: Can Jacksonville Slow Detroit’s Ground Game?
The Jaguars’ run defense has been a mixed bag, excelling in some personnel packages while faltering in others. When in base defense, they allow a modest -0.11 EPA/rush (9th best), but in dime packages, their run defense crumbles, allowing a staggering +1.13 EPA/rush.
Detroit’s offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is known for capitalizing on mismatches, and the Lions’ offensive line is one of the league’s most formidable. Expect Johnson to deploy strategic formations, possibly spreading the Jaguars’ defense thin and running in situations that catch them off-guard.
Key players like Amon-Ra St. Brown could also be utilized creatively in motion or as decoys to exploit Jacksonville’s vulnerabilities. This chess match between Johnson’s offense and Ryan Nielsen’s defense could be pivotal in determining the game’s outcome.
You’re Grounded, Mister: Jaguars’ Rushing Game Without Tank Bigsby
With starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence out and Tank Bigsby sidelined, the Jaguars’ rushing attack will lean heavily on Travis Etienne. Jacksonville ranks middle-of-the-pack in most rushing metrics but leads the league in yards after contact per attempt (YACo/Att), with Bigsby and Etienne excelling in breaking tackles.
Tank Bigsby: 4.9 YACo/Att (1st in the NFL)
Travis Etienne: 4.0 YACo/Att (2nd in the NFL)
However, the Lions’ defense excels at gang tackling and limiting yards after contact, allowing just 2.41 YACo/Att (2nd best). Their ability to swarm the ball carrier and close running lanes could neutralize one of Jacksonville’s strongest weapons. If the Lions succeed in forcing the Jaguars into third-and-long situations, it will put the game squarely in Mac Jones’ hands—a scenario heavily favoring Detroit.
Conclusion: Lions Favored but Jaguars Could Surprise
The Lions are heavy favorites, playing at home with a roaring crowd behind them. Yet, the Jaguars’ recent defensive improvements and the explosiveness of Travis Etienne offer glimpses of hope. This matchup will ultimately come down to execution: Can Jared Goff protect the football? Will the Lions’ run defense maintain its dominance? And can Jacksonville’s offense muster enough creativity to keep pace?
As both teams prepare for what promises to be a physical, high-stakes showdown, all eyes will be on these pivotal matchups and the statistical battles underlying them. Will history repeat itself, or will Jacksonville defy the odds and upset Detroit’s momentum?
