The Detroit Lions’ dominant 52-6 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 11, coupled with the Kansas City Chiefs’ 30-21 loss to the Buffalo Bills, catapulted the Lions into a rare position.
For one of the first times in franchise history, they are the consensus Super Bowl favorites at roughly +325 odds. Some oddsmakers believe this may be the first time the team has been favored to win the title in 70 years, as the Lions have only made the playoffs 18 times since 1935.
This status has made the Lions a source of concern for sportsbooks after an impressive 9-1 start this season. Following last year’s NFC Championship Game appearance, heavy betting on Detroit could lead to significant losses for sportsbooks if the Lions win Super Bowl LIX.
“They’re our biggest Super Bowl liability by far,” said BetMGM trader Christian Cipollini. “If I could remove them from futures, I would. At this point, the Lions winning would be a huge problem for us.”
Adding to the pressure, Michigan’s legalization of sports betting has fueled local fans’ wagers. The Lions started the offseason with 12-1 odds to win the Super Bowl, but these have since shortened to around 3-1.
The betting momentum began even before the season and has surged as Detroit became one of the most-wagered teams at sportsbooks like Mohegan Sun FanDuel.
At DraftKings, 31% of bets and 31% of dollars wagered on the Super Bowl are on Detroit. Similarly, at The Borgata, the Lions have drawn the most money for Super Bowl futures, far outpacing other teams.
“We hate the Lions,” Cipollini admitted, noting that Detroit consistently draws the most bets. “I haven’t seen anything like this. Last week, 95% of bets on the Jaguars game were on Detroit.”
With an NFC-best 9-1 record and eight consecutive wins, Detroit has risen to the consensus No. 1 power ranking. Nine out of 10 oddsmakers polled ranked the Lions as the top team, with only one preferring the Baltimore Ravens. Detroit also boasts the league’s best record against the spread (8-2), with bettors cashing in regularly on moneyline wagers and teasers.
The Lions’ betting popularity extends beyond Michigan. Bookmakers from Mississippi to Las Vegas have seen increased interest in Detroit. At The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, Vice President Ed Salmons confirmed, “Weekly bets on the Lions’ spread, moneyline, and game totals have surged.”
BetMGM and DraftKings reported Detroit -7.5 as the most-bet Week 12 side in money and tickets. The Borgata’s Thomas Gable added, “We opened the Lions -8 against the Colts, and sharp money immediately pushed it to 7.5.”
Detroit’s 41-16 record against the spread (ATS) since 2021 explains their appeal. This includes a 22-8 ATS first-half record since last season. Notably, the Lions’ recent blowout wins, including a 52-6 victory over Jacksonville as 14-point favorites, highlight their dominance in covering spreads.
Looking ahead, six oddsmakers speculated on a potential Super Bowl matchup between the Lions and Chiefs. Spread predictions ranged from Lions -4.5 to a pick-em, with one oddsmaker expressing concern over Detroit’s lack of experience compared to Kansas City’s Andy Reid-led squad.
While the Lions steamroll through opponents, oddsmakers are hoping history prevents a Detroit championship. Some, recalling the Lions’ last favored appearance in the 1954 championship, noted they lost 56-10 to the Cleveland Browns.
