Dan Campbell, head coach of the Detroit Lions, has quickly risen to prominence as one of the top coaches in the NFL. His two key assistants are also being recognized as some of the top coaching candidates for 2025. However, there are growing concerns about whether Campbell’s decision-making could ultimately prevent the Lions from reaching the Super Bowl.
Detroit is the most aggressive team in the league, particularly with their frequent fourth-down attempts, a strategy they employ more consistently than most teams in NFL history. While this aggressive approach is partly driven by analytics, it’s also influenced by Campbell’s belief in how exhausting fourth-down conversions can be for opponents, especially as it relates to NFL power rankings for 2024.
Campbell’s coaching record stands at 41-34-1 overall and 36-27-1 with the Lions. The Lions showcased this aggressive strategy in their recent victory over the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football, keeping them at the top of the NFC and further distancing themselves from the Packers in the NFC North. Despite their success, some around the league question if Campbell’s aggressive decision-making will be a liability in the postseason.
Mike Sando of The Athletic surveyed multiple NFL executives about potential concerns regarding Super Bowl contenders, and while some considered Detroit the best team in football, an anonymous executive expressed worries about Campbell’s willingness to stick to his fourth-down approach in high-leverage playoff games. “There’s a concern about Campbell not adapting to the playoff mindset, where possessions are crucial and he wants to keep pushing his aggressive fourth-down strategy,” the executive said. “That hurt them in their playoff loss to San Francisco last season. Can he adjust for the higher stakes of postseason football?”
Despite this concern, Campbell hasn’t modified his approach. Last season, the Lions posted a 57.7% conversion rate on fourth downs, ranking 15th in the NFL, with an average of 2.35 fourth-down attempts per game. This season, their fourth-down conversion rate has improved to 68.2%, the 6th-best in the league, though they are averaging fewer attempts per game (1.69) due to multiple blowout wins.
Some executives also worry that if the Lions’ defense regresses, it could place additional pressure on quarterback Jared Goff. Goff has been highly efficient when Detroit is either leading or tied, with a 42-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but has struggled when trailing, posting a 17-15 ratio.
If Detroit’s defense remains healthy heading into the playoffs and they can leverage the strong home-field advantage at Ford Field, they could overcome these challenges. The Lions are still widely viewed as having one of the best coaching staffs and rosters in the NFL.
