
The Detroit Lions might not replicate their historic 15-win campaign from 2024, at least if ESPN’s Bill Barnwell is right. In a recent piece, the analyst named Detroit among five NFL teams expected to post fewer victories this fall, alongside Kansas City, Minnesota, Washington, and Indianapolis.
Barnwell emphasized that this isn’t a sign the Lions will suddenly collapse. In fact, he praised them as one of the NFC’s strongest squads. But he also outlined several challenges that could prevent Dan Campbell’s group from matching last season’s record-setting success.
Injury luck may swing the other way
Detroit’s defense limped through the back half of 2024, losing stars Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill before the postseason. Yet the offense was almost untouched by injuries. According to Barnwell, the unit was the league’s second-healthiest, with only 10 combined games missed by starters. That kind of fortune is difficult to count on twice, meaning the Lions’ offense may deal with more adversity in 2025.
Offensive line turnover
With longtime center Frank Ragnow retiring, the line will feature several new faces. While tackles Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell remain anchors, Detroit has shuffled positions to compensate. Rookie Christian Mahogany is expected to start at guard, while Glasgow shifts inside to center. Barnwell noted that this reshuffling could test Jared Goff’s protection compared to last year’s stability.
New coordinators in key roles
The Lions also lost both coordinators to head coaching jobs. Ben Johnson now leads the Bears, while Aaron Glenn was hired by the Jets. Their replacements, John Morton (offense) and Kelvin Sheppard (defense), bring far less experience. Barnwell doubts the team will get the same level of game-planning and in-game adjustments under new leadership.
Brutal schedule ahead
Detroit faces the NFL’s second-hardest schedule in 2025, with 11 games against last year’s playoff teams and nine against clubs projected to be postseason contenders again. That grind could make it difficult to maintain Super Bowl momentum.
Barnwell’s bottom line
The Lions are still a contender, but Barnwell projects closer to 12 wins — strong enough for another division crown, but short of the 15 victories that set a franchise record a year ago.