The Cleveland Browns head to Detroit in Week 4 for a battle against the Lions, one of the NFL’s most explosive teams and a serious contender for the Lombardi Trophy.
Cleveland is riding high after shocking the Green Bay Packers last week, but betting lines and projections still tilt heavily in favor of Detroit.
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), the Lions hold a 78.1% chance to win, with an expected margin of victory of about 12 points.
Detroit’s offense has been on a tear, piling up 90 points across their last two games. In fact, their efficiency reached historic heights in Weeks 2 and 3, when they became the first NFL team since the 1970 merger to produce six passing and six rushing touchdowns over two games without giving up a sack or a turnover.
Even so, Cleveland’s defense could be the toughest test yet for Detroit. The Browns allow the fewest rushing yards per game in the league (57.3) and have gone 31 consecutive games without yielding a 300-yard passing performance, the longest active streak in the NFL. Their defense has already clamped down on elite runners such as Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Jacobs.
The issue for Cleveland lies on the offensive side. The Browns haven’t scored more than 17 points in a game this year, with Joe Flacco’s turnover problems and an injury-weakened offensive line creating major concerns against Detroit’s fierce pass rush.
For Cleveland to keep this matchup close, they’ll need to shut down the Lions’ backfield duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, forcing Detroit into a more predictable passing attack. If they manage that, their defensive front, led by Myles Garrett and rookie Mason Graham, could create enough pressure on Jared Goff to spark turnovers.
The Browns’ ability to control the line of scrimmage and stay disciplined in their gaps will be critical if they want to contain one of the NFL’s most dangerous offenses.
