Kentucky basketball vs Tennessee Preview, prediction and pick for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

After a six-year wait that felt like an eternity for fans, Kentucky basketball has finally returned to the NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16. The Wildcats, a 3-seed in the Midwest Region, had little trouble dispatching 6-seed Illinois in the second round at Fiserv Forum.

This marks the first time since 2019 that Kentucky has advanced beyond the tournament’s opening weekend. The previous five seasons were filled with frustration:

The 2020 tournament was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The 2021 season saw Kentucky struggle to a 9-16 record, its worst since 1926-27.
A shocking first-round exit in 2022 at the hands of 15-seed Saint Peter’s, despite the Wildcats boasting national Player of the Year Oscar Tshiebwe.
A second-round defeat to Kansas State in 2023.
Another first-round upset in 2024, when 14-seed Oakland, led by sharpshooter Jack Gohlke, stunned Kentucky. That game also marked the end of John Calipari’s 15-year tenure as head coach.

Now, with those disappointments in the past, new head coach Mark Pope and the Wildcats set their sights on Indianapolis, where they will battle a familiar SEC rival—Tennessee.

Tennessee: A Program Still Chasing a Final Four Berth

Kentucky’s Sweet 16 opponent, Tennessee, is no stranger to NCAA Tournament success but has yet to reach the sport’s pinnacle. The 2-seed Volunteers enter the matchup with a 29-7 record, finishing fourth in the SEC with a 12-6 conference mark. They reached the SEC Tournament championship game but fell to Florida, 86-77.

After taking down Wofford and UCLA at Rupp Arena in the first two rounds, Tennessee is back in the Sweet 16 for a third consecutive year.

Despite years of strong performances, the Vols have never reached the Final Four. Among programs with the most NCAA Tournament appearances without a Final Four trip, Tennessee ranks high, alongside schools like BYU, Xavier, and Missouri. They have played 57 tournament games, trailing only Xavier (61) among teams yet to make the Final Four. Tennessee has 30 March Madness victories, second only to Xavier (31) among schools still chasing that elusive milestone.

This year, the Volunteers hope to change that—but standing in their way are Kentucky and a potential Elite Eight matchup with either Houston or Purdue.

Rick Barnes: A Coach Seeking His First Championship

Much like the Tennessee program he leads, head coach Rick Barnes has built a strong reputation but has never won a national title. With 835 career victories, he is the winningest active coach in Division I basketball.

Despite his success, Barnes has made just one Final Four appearance, in 2003 with Texas, and has never coached in a national championship game. His teams have consistently fallen short in March Madness, despite being loaded with talent.

Barnes’ NCAA Tournament track record includes:

29 appearances, ranking fourth in Division I history.
The most NCAA Tournament trips without a national title, surpassing Bob Huggins.
60 tournament games coached, second among active coaches without a championship (Mark Few leads with 69).
32 March Madness wins, second among active coaches without a national crown (Few has 44).

If Barnes can guide Tennessee to four more wins, he’ll finally claim the championship that has long eluded him.

Chaz Lanier: Tennessee’s Record-Breaking Sharpshooter

In his first season with Tennessee, transfer guard Chaz Lanier has made a significant impact. While he may not have reached the heights of last year’s star, Dalton Knecht, Lanier has carved out his own place in program history.

During Tennessee’s second-round win over UCLA, Lanier drained four three-pointers, bringing his season total to 120 and breaking the school’s single-season record previously held by Chris Lofton (118 in 2007-08).

Lanier’s mark places him among the SEC’s all-time leaders in single-season three-pointers, joining notable names like Bryce Brown (Auburn), Marshall Henderson (Ole Miss), John Jenkins (Vanderbilt), and Shan Foster (Vanderbilt).

Sweet 16 Prediction: Kentucky vs. Tennessee

Prediction: Tennessee 82, Kentucky 78

Kentucky claimed both regular-season meetings against Tennessee, but neither game was decided easily. The Volunteers will be highly motivated to avoid a third loss to the Wildcats, especially as they continue their pursuit of a historic Final Four berth.

The setting for this high-stakes battle—Indianapolis—has not been kind to Kentucky in recent years. It was here that Wisconsin ended UK’s perfect season in 2015, Duke handed them a crushing defeat in 2018, and Saint Peter’s orchestrated an unforgettable upset in 2022.

Expect a back-and-forth contest, with both teams trading momentum swings. However, Tennessee’s hunger to rewrite history will fuel them to a narrow victory, ending Kentucky’s season in another dramatic Indianapolis showdown.

Tags: Mark Pope