The Kentucky Wildcats are set to conclude their regular season by facing the No. 15 Missouri Tigers in Columbia this Saturday. The game is scheduled for noon ET and will be broadcast on ESPN.
Missouri has been one of the standout teams in college basketball this season, boasting a 21-9 overall record and ranking fifth in the SEC. Under the leadership of Coach Dennis Gates, now in his third season, the Tigers have transformed from last season’s winless SEC record to having one of the nation’s most formidable offenses.
However, after a strong 6-2 start in conference play, Missouri has experienced inconsistency, going 4-5 in their last nine games, including losses to Arkansas and Vanderbilt—teams that have also defeated Kentucky this season.
Key Factors to Watch
Rebounding
Rebounding has been a focal point for Kentucky this season, though their performance has fluctuated. After losing the rebounding battle in three consecutive games, the Wildcats have managed to dominate the boards in their last two outings.
Conversely, Missouri has struggled in this area, ranking among the worst rebounding teams in the SEC, despite having a roster that ranks in the top 50 in average height. The Tigers have lost the rebounding battle in three straight contests against Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt—all teams statistically inferior to Kentucky in this aspect.
Ball Security
While Missouri’s defense may not be elite, they excel at creating turnovers, averaging nearly 10 steals per game, which ranks them second nationally. Kentucky has faced challenges in maintaining possession recently but showed improvement against LSU, committing fewer than 12 turnovers for the first time in five games. The Wildcats will need to be vigilant against Missouri’s backcourt pressure, particularly from Anthony Robinson and Caleb Grill, both of whom rank in the top 10 in the SEC for steals.
Discipline on Defense
Kentucky’s defense has improved since mid-February; however, they have still allowed high scoring against top offenses, conceding 96 points to Alabama and 94 to Auburn during this period. Missouri possesses the fifth most efficient offense in the country, with a significant portion of their points coming from free throws. The Tigers draw over 20 fouls per game, accounting for nearly a quarter of their scoring from the charity stripe. It’s crucial for Kentucky to defend effectively without fouling to limit Missouri’s scoring opportunities and keep key players out of foul trouble, especially given the Wildcats’ lack of consistent bench production.
Players to Watch
- Caleb Grill (G, 6-3, 205 lbs): Averaging 14.3 points per game and 1.8 steals per game (9th in SEC), with a 43% three-point shooting accuracy (3rd in SEC).
- Mark Mitchell (G, 6-6, 230 lbs): Contributing 13.9 points and 4.7 rebounds per game, with a 49.4% field goal percentage.
- Anthony Robinson (G, 6-3, 180 lbs): Recording 9.7 points, 3.6 assists (10th in SEC), a 45.5% three-point shooting percentage, and 2.1 steals per game (2nd in SEC).
Game Details
- Time: 12:00 PM ET on March 8, 2025
- Location: Mizzou Arena in Columbia, Missouri
- TV Channel: ESPN
- Announcers: Tom Hart and Dane Bradshaw
- Online Stream: Available on ESPN+ and the ESPN app
- Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens will provide commentary on the UK Sports Radio Network
Betting Odds and Predictions
As of now, FanDuel Sportsbook has yet to release the odds for this game. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives Kentucky a 47.1% chance of victory, while EvanMiya assigns the Wildcats a 29.7% chance of an upset. KenPom and BartTorvik estimate Kentucky’s chances at 35% and 30%, respectively. Score predictions vary, with BartTorvik forecasting an 88-82 loss for Kentucky, EvanMiya predicting an 86-80 defeat, and Haslametrics also suggesting an 86-80 loss. KenPom projects Missouri to win 86-82. Despite these projections, there’s optimism that the Wildcats can secure a significant win in their regular-season finale.
In summary, the upcoming matchup between Kentucky and Missouri presents a compelling contest, with both teams aiming to solidify their standings as they approach postseason play.
