The Detroit Lions are looking to rebound and stay alive in the NFC North playoff race after a frustrating loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. In Week 12, they return home to face the 2-9 New York Giants, a team often described as tougher than their record suggests.
Detroit enters the matchup as a double-digit favorite (-10.5), but are the Lions truly safe from an upset? Here’s a complete statistical breakdown, matchup analysis, and final Lions vs. Giants prediction.
Lions vs. Giants: Statistical Preview
Lions Passing Offense vs. Giants Passing Defense
Detroit’s Passing Attack (9th in DVOA)
Jared Goff is coming off his worst game of the season, but the Lions still rank as a top-10 passing offense despite shaky pass protection.
Detroit OL concerns:
24th in PFF pass blocking (59.8)
26th in pass block win rate (56%)
21st in pressure rate allowed (35.5%)
14th in sack rate (6.0%)
Where Detroit wins:
Fastest release time in the NFL (2.49 seconds)
2nd in YAC (1,495 yards)
3rd in passer rating (111.1)
5th in YPA (8.0)
8th in dropback EPA (0.188)
8th in success rate (50.7%)
New York’s Passing Defense (20th)
The Giants’ secondary has been trending downward, allowing a passer rating over 115 in three of their last four games.
Key metrics:
22nd in passer rating allowed (96.6)
13th in YPA (6.9)
23rd in dropback EPA (0.148)
19th in success rate (47.9%)
Pass Rush Threats
Brian Burns: 13.0 sacks, 17% win rate
Abdul Carter: 17% win rate, disruptive despite low sack totals
Dexter Lawrence: Top-10 interior win rate (14.2%)
Matchup Verdict: Advantage Lions (+1.5)
Detroit should move the ball through the air, but must limit pressure from Burns and Lawrence.
Lions Run Offense vs. Giants Run Defense
Detroit’s Run Game (8th)
The Lions have been inconsistent, but explosive plays remain a strength.
Run game metrics:
11th in YPC (4.6)
16th in rush EPA
22nd in success rate
5th in 20+ yard runs (9)
t-2nd in 30+ yard runs (5)
New York’s Run Defense (32nd – Worst in NFL)
This is the Giants’ biggest weakness — and it’s getting worse.
Season-long struggles:
32nd in run defense DVOA
5.5 yards allowed per carry
0.16 EPA/rush allowed (32nd)
46.2% success rate (31st)
52 rushes of 10+ yards allowed (32nd)
Last 5 games:
175.2 rushing yards allowed per game
6.0 yards per carry allowed
8 rushing TDs surrendered
Most 20+ yard runs allowed (12)
Player to Watch: Jahmyr Gibbs
The Giants are especially vulnerable on outside runs, which fits Gibbs’ game.
Matchup Verdict: Lions (+2.5)
Detroit should dominate on the ground if the offense simply executes.
Giants Passing Offense vs. Lions Passing Defense
New York Passing Attack (21st)
Assuming Jaxson Dart plays, the Giants passing game has been better with him under center.
Dart’s 2025 ranks:
18th passer rating (93.5)
22nd YPA (6.9)
13th EPA/dropback
29th completion percentage over expected (-3.3%)
He does take sacks (2.6 per game), but has strong mobility.
Detroit Pass Defense (Top-5 in EPA & Success Rate)
The Lions allow just 192.1 passing yards per game and excel in consistency.
Key defensive metrics:
15th in passer rating allowed
11th in YPA
8th in dropback EPA
4th in success rate (40.4%)
Weak spot:
3rd-most passes of 30+ yards allowed
New York ranks 11th in explosive passes.
Player to Watch: Theo Johnson (TE)
Leads the team in receiving production with Dart and is a key red-zone target.
Matchup Verdict: Lions (+1)
Detroit should hold up well if they keep Dart inside the pocket.
Giants Run Offense vs. Lions Run Defense
New York’s Ground Game (16th)
Even without Skattebo, the Giants remain productive.
Metrics:
124.7 rushing yards/game (10th)
4.2 yards per carry
10th in rush EPA
16th in success rate
QB Dart: 35.2 rushing yards/game
Tyrone Tracy: 177 yards on 38 carries the last three weeks.
Detroit Run Defense (Top-10)
The Lions have held four of their last five opponents under 4.0 YPC.
Metrics:
4.0 yards per carry allowed
10th in rush EPA allowed
14th in success rate
1st in short-yardage defense (41% success rate allowed)
Player to Watch: Jaxson Dart
His mobility is the Giants’ biggest X-factor.
Matchup Verdict: Draw
Detroit is strong, but Dart’s scrambling gives this matchup volatility.
Final Prediction: Lions vs. Giants Week 12
Detroit holds a +5 overall advantage, winning three of the four major matchups. The Lions typically dominate poor defenses — and the Giants statistically have one of the worst units Detroit will face.
Expect a bounce-back performance from Jared Goff, a huge game from the run attack, and enough defensive stops to keep New York in check.
Prediction:
Lions 37, Giants 20
Detroit gets back on track, improves in the NFC North race, and rebounds offensively in a big way.
