Both BYU and Texas Tech are missing one of their standout players, but their responses have differed. Since the injuries to JT Toppin and Richie Saunders, BYU has a 2-4 record, while Texas Tech has a 3-2 record. Two of Texas Tech’s victories were a 12-point home triumph over Cincinnati and a road victory against Iowa State. Tech is coming off an eight-point home defeat to TCU.
Despite BYU’s disastrous last three games, the Cougs are little favorites over the Red Raiders. This game is Senior Night, when BYU will recognize Richie Saunders, Keba Keita, Mihailo Boskovic, and Jared McGregor.
The game begins Saturday night at 8:30 p. m. ET on ESPN.
Texas Tech and BYU, by the numbers.
Texas Tech Kenpom: 14
NET ranking: 14
Record: 22-8 (12-5 Big 12).
Best victories: Wake Forest (N), LSU (N), Duke (N), Oklahoma State (H), Colorado (A/H), Utah (H), BYU (H), Baylor (A), Houston (H), West Virginia (A), Arizona (A), Kansas State (H), Cincinnati (H), Iowa State (A)
Losses: Illinois (A), Purdue (N), Arkansas (N), Houston (A), UCF (A), Kansas (H), Arizona State (A), TCU (H).
AP Ranking: 10.
BYU KenPom: 24
NET Ranking: twenty-fifth
Record: 20-10 (8-9 Big 12)
AP Ranking: N/A.
KenPom Prediction: BYU 82, Texas Tech 81—BYU 54% Win Probability
Point Spread: BYU -1. 5
Point Total: 160. 5.
Texas Tech Overview.
Since JT Toppin went down, the Red Raiders have played well. They haven’t given up more than 73 points in any of the four games without Toppin, but have scored 80 or more points in three of the contests. Last Saturday, they had an excellent road victory against Iowa State, but they then lost 73-65 at home to TCU. TCU dominated the glass and won the turnover battle, forcing a turnover on 24% of Texas Tech’s possessions.
Texas Tech does not play at a fast pace and takes several three-pointers, particularly in the absence of Toppin. Christian Anderson is among the nation’s finest point guards, with even more responsibilities. Texas Tech plays with a tall guy who is a lob danger, Anderson, and three perimeter shooters.
Players To Watch.
Without Toppin, Tech uses mostly a seven-man rotation. Anderson, Atwell, and Petty, the team’s backcourt, each play more than 30 minutes.
Christian Anderson, Point Guard — Anderson will play almost all 40 minutes as long as the game is tight and he stays out of foul trouble. He is a well-rounded player, averaging 19 points, 8 assists, and 4 rebounds while shooting 42% from beyond the arc. He had nine assists against TCU on Tuesday, but shot 1-for-7 from three-point range and committed six turnovers.
Donovan Atwell, Guard/Wing—Atwell is one of the finest shooters in the country. Atwell attempts over eight three-pointers each game, hitting 46%. BYU restricted him to 1-5 shooting from three in their first meeting, and I anticipate AJ will spend a lot of time guarding him in an attempt to give him the Momcilovic treatment.
Jaylen Petty, Guard — Petty is Anderson’s 6-foot-1 backcourt partner. He is also a deadly shooter, hitting 38% from beyond the arc on more than five attempts per game. He, Atwell, and Anderson all play the majority of the minutes.
Luke Bamgboye, Center: Bamgboye missed the first game due to injury, but BYU saw him last year while he was VCU’s starting center. Bamgboye is a good shot blocker, however he is not a regular contributor to the scoring attack.
Prediction
BYU has played poorly for the previous three games. BYU put up a fight against West Virginia, but was defeated by UCF and Cincinnati.
Texas Tech is a strong three-point shooting team, and BYU will be in problems if the Cougs do not defend well. BYU has also struggled against dynamic lead guards, and Christian Anderson might have his way with the BYU defense.
I don’t believe anybody would be shocked if Tech won easily. However, I believe BYU keeps this close on senior night. Texas Tech displayed some cracks in their home defeat against TCU, and I would like to believe BYU would have excellent energy and effort on senior night, with Richie Saunders on the bench. In his final game, AJ will want to provide supporters with a strong farewell, and I believe the squad will step up.
If you want a glass half full view, BYU can defend Texas Tech in much the same way as they defended Iowa State. Although those teams have some variances, they are alike in that Tech uses Atwell and Iowa State uses Momcilovic. AJ stopped Momcilovic while pursuing him off screen, and he is expected to be given a similar duty again.
Finally, I believe Texas Tech will win due to their shooting prowess and BYU’s inability to capitalize on Texas Tech’s rebounding limitations. If BYU wins one of those fights, they will depart with a victory.
Prediction: Texas Tech 78, BYU 76
