Under head coach Mark Pope, the Kentucky Wildcats have been making waves, reaching the Sweet 16. However, their journey may be nearing its end as they prepare to face No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers at Lucas Oil Stadium on Friday. Despite being a close matchup in terms of rankings, ESPN’s Matchup Predictor heavily favors Tennessee.
According to the ESPN projection, Kentucky has just a 36.9% chance of securing a victory, while Tennessee holds a 63.1% probability of winning.
What makes this prediction intriguing is that Kentucky has already beaten Tennessee twice this season.
- On January 28, the Wildcats edged out the Vols 78-73, with all five starters contributing double-digit points.
- In their February 11 encounter, Kentucky earned an even more decisive 11-point win, fueled by an impressive 12-of-24 shooting performance from beyond the arc.
Injury Concerns for Kentucky
Kentucky enters this matchup dealing with injuries to Kerr Kriisa (foot) and Jaxson Robinson (hand). Robinson played a significant role in their first win over Tennessee, scoring 17 points and grabbing four rebounds.
A bright spot for the Wildcats is Koby Brea, who erupted for 23 points in their recent victory over Illinois in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. If he maintains that offensive momentum, Kentucky’s chances of an upset improve.
Tennessee’s Defensive Dominance
Tennessee’s strength lies in its elite defense. Throughout the 2024-25 season, the Vols have ranked among the best defensive teams in college basketball. Their defensive prowess has carried into the tournament, as they have held opponents to just 39% shooting in the first two rounds.
While the Volunteers may be the favorites, Kentucky has already proven it can take them down. The stage is set for a thrilling showdown, and writing off the Wildcats entirely would be a mistake.
