Play the music! The second round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament takes place this weekend. As the March Madness field has been reduced to 32 remaining teams over 16 games, the heat is starting to rise for every school that is still competing.
Despite what many people predicted to be a typical 5/12 surprise in the first round, the Texas Tech Red Raiders prevailed. However, this contest presents a considerably bigger challenge. We may be looking at a possible boat race here since the Alabama Crimson Tide have one of the top offenses in college basketball.
Preview, prediction for the Texas Tech-Alabama game
Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Red Raiders improved their season record to 23-10 with Friday’s victory against Akron, a game they won easily by a score of 91-71, which broke out in the second half. This will be a significantly harder fight against a far superior squad, even if they managed to get through the first round without JT Toppin, their top scorer and rebounder (who is out for the season with a torn ACL). Notably, Texas Tech is still 7-9 against Quad 1 opponents like Alabama.
With a +25. 77 NETRTG, the Red Raiders are ranked 19th in the most recent KenPom ratings. With 80. 4 points per game, they are 10th in ORTG, and they are still sometimes putting up some exceptional offensive performances. It’s just a matter of when they can consistently get that kind of output without their top player. Despite this, they still rely on the perimeter game, ranking fourth in 3P% at the Division I level with a 39. 3% mark and fifth in threes made per game (11. 5) with the 18th-most attempts. With a 1. 465 AST/TO ratio that ranks 53rd overall, the Red Raiders have a respectable passing game and a 46. 7% field goal percentage. They also average 15. 8 assists per game. The defense and rebounding aren’t great, but they aren’t terrible either, with 36. 9 boards per game (70th) and 72. 6 points allowed on average, the 33rd best DRTG.
Christian Anderson has increased his performance to that of a star, averaging 18. 9 points and 7. 6 assists per game, as well as a 42. 5% 3P%. LeJuan Watts averages 11. 5 points and leads the team with 6. 0 rebounds, while Donovan Atwell contributes 13. 5 points with a 45. 4% mark from deep. However, with a 24-point effort in the first round, Jaylen Petty carried the weight, despite having an average of only 9. 5 points per game throughout the regular season.
Tide of Alabama Crimson
Alabama, which is 24-9 in the campaign since coming out of the SEC, also won by 20 points in the first round. In their first game, the Crimson Tide defeated Hofstra 90-70, but they were also put to the test in the first half, only holding a 37-35 advantage at halftime. Additionally, this year they had a 7-7 record against Quad 1 opponents.
With a NetRtg per KenPom of +26. 20, The Tide is ranked 16th. They score a lot of points as a team, but they can hardly win unless the game is a shootout. The team’s ORtg is third in the nation, and its 91. 7 PPG are the highest in the NCAA. Neither of the Crimson Tide’s shooting percentages—45. 8% from the field and 35. 8% from three—is particularly outstanding. They are ranked third in FGA per game, though, and they are the best in the league in terms of both 3PA and 3PM. With a 1. 649 AST/TO ratio, they are also dishing 16. 1 assists, and their 40. 6 rebounds per game rank eighth in the league. However, the other side of the ball is, at the very least, a source of worry. With the 65th-ranked DRtg at that, Alabama permits 83. 5 PPG, which places it 352nd in Division 1. The elite offense is somewhat of a double-edged sword because of the speed at which the program plays.
In the first round, Labaron Philon Jr. scored 29 points while averaging a staggering 21. 7 points and 4. 7 assists each game for the Crimson Tide, hitting 40. 2% of his attempts from beyond. With 7. 1 and 6. 1 boards, respectively, Amari Allen and Aiden Sherrell average over 11. 0 PPG, and Latrell Wrightsell scores 12. 8 points. The team, however, is considering replacing Aden Holloway’s 16. 8 PPG and exceptional 3-point shooting as his suspension for off-court issues approaches.
The best wager is the pick for Alabama against Texas Tech.
Texas Tech is a little 1. 5-point favorite in this one, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, which has Moneyline odds of -118. With the game total at 164. 5 combined points, Alabama enters as a tiny ML underdog with odds of -102.
Despite being predicted by many to lose in the first round, the Red Raiders managed to pull off a victory. They might not be so fortunate this time. These are two of the top offenses in the game, with two of the best players in the sport from outside the arc. This is the agreement. If TTU can make shots from far out, the team has a chance to stick with Bama. The Red Raiders will be packed back to Lubbock if those shots don’t land or if Anderson plays poorly. The truth is that the Crimson Tide are superior in scoring throughout their lineup and on the glass due to their greater interior size. Both teams have a chance to win in this expected high-scoring contest, but without Toppin, Texas Tech’s potential remains limited. Alabama should survive and progress, in my opinion.
