Due to their unsuccessful attempts to sign Moises Caicedo and Romeo Lavia, Liverpool has had a difficult week.
In the coming days and weeks, before the transfer window closes at the end of this month, Liverpool will resume their search for the defensive midfielder they so much want following two aborted attempts.
Liverpool must reevaluate their options when it comes to finding someone to fill the void left by Jordan Henderson and leaving for the Saudi Arabian Pro League after losing out to free-spending Chelsea on both Moises Caicedo of Brighton & Hove Albion and Romeo Lavia of Southampton, with the duo both heading for Stamford Bridge for a combined fee of around £170m.
Under the stewardship of Fenway Sports Group for so long, Liverpool has made an effort to uncover hidden gems in the transfer market. Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane, Andrew Robertson, and Georginio Wijnaldum were all signed for substantially less than their eventual market value. It was a recruitment strategy supported by an aggressive use of data analytics that would make their hiring the envy of Europe and inspire other teams to want to replicate their success.
But it’s getting harder and harder to locate those marginal benefits and hidden talents, so now cities like Brighton are being held up as the gold standard for discovering potential. At age 21, Caicedo has enormous skill. His skill set is ideal for the Premier League, and his season has largely lived up to the hype. However, the Ecuadorian’s £115 million transfer cost illustrates how twisted the transfer market has become, since his worth has increased by 2,455% since he was bought two years ago for only £4.5 millio
In the early 2000s, under Roman Abramovich, Chelsea established a new era of spending. Now, some 20 years later, under Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital ownership, the London club is laying down new markers once more by signing players to longer contracts to lower the annual amortization charges on the books (how transfers are accounted for by dividing the guaranteed fee by the number of years on the player’s contract).
Three unsuccessful bids from Liverpool for Lavia by Southampton were followed by Chelsea’s rekindled interest in Caicedo as a result of the Reds’ £111 million deal, which would have set a British transfer record. This forced the London club to pay £35 million more than they had originally offered. Liverpool then
The multi-billionaire patriarch Logan Roy (played by the great Brian Cox) tells his estranged children who are competing with him to acquire a rival media company: “Congratulations on saying the biggest number, you f*****g morons.” in a memorable scene from the HBO series Succession’s final season.
Given the caliber of players Chelsea signed, it’s hard to call their signings of Caicedo and Lavia stupid. However, the cost of their services is largely determined by who is willing to offer the highest price, and Brighton and Southampton have proven that they aren’t weaklings at the negotiating table.
spent £60 million.
FSG has long been associated with the myth that they are unwilling buyers in the transfer market. When it comes to net spend, which is how owners are sometimes rated in some social media circles for having ambition or not, it is true that they haven’t spent as much as their competitors. The Reds have had a successful transfer strategy for a while, but they now have an expensive rebuild to pay for because they didn’t spend much right after winning the Premier League title and didn’t take advantage of recent window possibilities to strengthen.
However, the transfer market has continued to develop and the envelope has been pushed even farther, although FSG have always been regarded as the sharpest people in the room. Clubs that are the target of major teams’ desire for its youthful assets no longer permit themselves to be harassed. They are aware of the market’s worth and the fact that consumers are eager to spend money there.
There is the theory that Liverpool and their opponents may just seize these hidden treasures that teams like Brighton unearth. However, they are unable to provide first team football in a less stressful setting where players can flourish because they expect polished products capable of competing at the highest level every single week.
While the £111 million bid for Caicedo may have shown FSG’s desire to compete in the market, Liverpool has also raised the bar even higher in the transfer market, whether on purpose or not, in the short- and long-term.
Selling teams are aware that Liverpool has the resources to pay a large sum of money since the £111 million did not suddenly vanish into thin air. With two failed attempts to land targets, they have also demonstrated that they are operating with less time and maneuverability than before. All of this is to the selling club’s advantage because they will want to drive the highest price before the window closes.
Longer term, it wasn’t until 2021 that people realized how shocking it was that £100 million had been spent on Jack Grealish. After the acquisitions of defensive-minded midfielders like Enzo Fernandez, Declan Rice, and Moises Caicedo—players who traditionally might not have garnered market-busting sums the way attacking players do—we have reached the point where agreements worth £100 million or more have become the new standard. It’s a trend that will probably continue as the biggest teams have access to more money in the future thanks to the Premier League’s TV deal and the redesigned Champions League, which will start play in 2024.
All clubs will continue to look for value, but there is a premium to be paid for individuals who can contribute right away for major clubs. Liverpool committed to participating in the serious bidding that will continue to drive the transfer market and exposed themselves more than they would have liked to during this window.
With the signing of a defensive midfielder and possibly more alternatives in midfield and defense, Liverpool will continue to be a fiercely competitive force at the top of both the domestic and European leagues. However, they are probably going to see their negotiating power erode and their leverage decline. Value has never been so difficult to find.
