Not quite a full year has passed since Brock Purdy became the starting quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers. But now that there have been 17 games, Purdy’s sample size is larger.
It’s not like Purdy has time to stress over these kinds of career standards. Because of this, the second-year quarterback was taken aback to learn that he had now started every game of the season following San Francisco’s 34-3 victory against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.
“I was unaware of that,” Purdy said to ESPN. It passed quickly. It is absurd to consider that.”
On December 11, 2022, Purdy started his first NFL game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Not coincidentally, the 49ers visit the Bucs at Levi’s Stadium on Sunday (4:05 p.m. ET, Fox) to begin his second tour through the league.
Purdy has had many highs and lows throughout his time as the starting quarterback, including a terrible injury and constant speculation from the public about whether he is the quarterback who can win the 49ers their sixth Super Bowl.
Therefore, as the 49ers look to the future, now is a fantastic opportunity to examine the truth and fiction surrounding Purdy’s career beginning, using five separate truths and myths.
Note: We’ve included his Week 13 relief performance against Miami from last season, where he played around three quarters, for the purposes of this exercise. That makes for a complete 17th game when combined with the less than quarter of a quarter he played in the NFC title game.
The 49ers think Purdy can be their starting quarterback in the long run: FACT
From the first play Purdy made to replace an injured Jimmy Garoppolo against the Dolphins, coach Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers had faith in him.
Purdy was always going to be the starting quarterback for the Niners this season, barring Tom Brady’s decision to stay in San Francisco, as long as he fully recovered from the torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow sustained in the team’s NFC Championship Game loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Ever since clearing that initial obstacle during training camp, Purdy has not taken any action to diminish Shanahan’s confidence in him. Purdy threw five interceptions during the Niners’ most recent three-game losing streak, but Shanahan laughed at the notion of benching his 23-year-old quarterback.
“I love having a guy who isn’t thinking about that,” Shanahan said of Purdy, who has completed 172 of 250 passes this season for 2,329 yards and 15 touchdown passes against five interceptions. “He’s trying to make the right decisions, letting it rip, and he’ll live with the consequences and try and get better when it’s not.”
The Niners have a 13-4 record with Purdy starting 17 games. He leads the NFL in yards per attempt (8.9), QBR (72.7), completion percentage (68.1%), touchdown passes (31) and touchdown-to-interception ratio (3.9).
The Niners view Purdy as their quarterback both in the near and long terms, regardless of whether outside observers want to believe it.
Purdy only throws to pass-catchers who are wide open: FICTION
The fact that Purdy frequently passes the ball to teammates without defenders in the same zip code is one of the so-called criticisms leveled against him. Though Purdy’s receivers aren’t inherently more open than anyone else’s, Shanahan’s scheme and a good bunch of skill position players make a major difference (more on this in a bit).
The average gap between receivers at the moment the ball arrives is tracked by NFL Next Gen Stats. Although a quarterback’s arm strength—or lack thereof—can skew those numbers somewhat, they nevertheless serve as a reliable gauge of how open a pass-catcher is when the ball is delivered.
The 49ers rank 17th in the NFL in average yardage separation on Purdy’s pass attempts (3.46 yards).
Purdy’s third-lowest NFL tight-window throw percentage of 10.8% indicates that he doesn’t frequently force the ball to an unopen receiver. For comparison, the lowest percentage in the NFL in this area belongs to quarterback Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs.
Wide-open throws are defined by Next Gen as ones on which a pass-catcher has at least five yards of separation when the ball arrives. Purdy is ranked 20th in the NFL with a wide-open percentage of 21.3%.
Throwing to open receivers is a top need for the position, therefore there’s nothing wrong with that. Purdy excels at it, but generally speaking, his pass-catchers aren’t any more open than half of the other signal-callers in the league.
Purdy can simultaneously be the beneficiary of a great plan and local talent while also contributing to its success. Since Christian McCaffrey is still the major weapon in Shanahan’s run-first system, Purdy’s 26.3 throw attempts per game rank 23rd in the league since he assumed the starting role.
Purdy can simultaneously be the beneficiary of a great plan and local talent while also contributing to its success. Since Christian McCaffrey is still the major weapon in Shanahan’s run-first system, Purdy’s 26.3 throw attempts per game rank 23rd in the league since he assumed the starting role.
In addition, Purdy has some of the top players in the league at their positions in tight end George Kittle, receivers Debbie Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and left tackle Trent Williams.
They are all major contributors to Purdy’s NFL record of second-best yards after catch per completion (6.24) since he took over as the starter. In addition, Purdy’s pass-catchers are leading the NFL in average yards after reception (1.64 yards over expectation). The Houston Texans are the next closest team, with a 0.98.
While there’s enough of credit to be shared for an offense that leads in offensive expected points added (plus-124.78) since Purdy took over, Purdy shouldn’t feel bad about seizing a favorable opportunity.
Purdy needs to handle the ball better, particularly when it’s close to the end: Fact
Purdy made six mistakes in the Niners’ three-game losing skid, five of which were interceptions. Without a doubt, that was the hardest part of his career.
When questioned on Sunday, Purdy said he had learned one thing above all as a rookie. He replied without much thought.
“Just not a moron,” Purdy remarked. “Having a steady football game. I believe you can succeed as a quarterback if you can make the right choices repeatedly without becoming tired, just take advantage of checkdowns and be astute as possible. Having played 17 games so far this season, I believe that’s the biggest accomplishment.”
The counting statistics don’t look too bad: Purdy has lost just three fumbles and has eight interceptions, which ties him for the 12th fewest in the league among eligible players. However, Purdy has also had a history of placing the ball in danger.
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Pro Football Focus monitors plays that have the potential to result in a turnover, such as fumbles that are recovered by the offense and passes that the defense drops. Purdy has 14 turnover-worthy plays through nine games this season, which is sixth most in the NFL. In 2022, he had seven in ten games.
The fact that Purdy’s selections have occurred at inconvenient periods is even more concerning. Six of his eight career interceptions have happened in the second half while the Niners are behind, and three of those have occurred in the fourth quarter while they are in opponent territory.
While Purdy has a full season of games now, he still doesn’t have a big sample in attempting to lead comebacks. He was successful in Week 17 last year against the Las Vegas Raiders but was unable to do it during the three-game losing streak (not that Jake Moody missing a tying field goal in Cleveland was his fault). Still, Purdy is aware of his faults and working to get better at winning time.
“One thing about Brock is he always takes accountability of his mistakes and he wants to be the best version of him as possible, and that’s one thing we like about Brock here,” Samuel said.
Purdy not only doesn’t throw deep often but struggles when he does: FICTION
The idea that Purdy just checks the ball down to his pass-catchers and they handle all the yardage work after the reception is one of the most persistent fallacies about him. But since taking over as the 49ers’ starting quarterback, Purdy’s yards-per-attempt average (8.9) has led the NFL because he is pushing the ball down the field and gaining yards for his teammates after the catch.
“I think Purdy has been more successful throwing the ball down the field than anyone that we’ve had since ’17,” Juszczyk stated. “You really don’t see a ton of checkdowns because he’s been so successful getting it to that first read down the field.”
Not that Purdy just airs it out, but since entering the game, he has helped the Niners get into the center of the pack in terms of deep ball play. Purdy’s 7.5 air yards per attempt since taking over as the Niners quarterback rank 19th in the league (above of Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, and others). 10.5% of his throws travel 20-plus air yards, which is 16th place, ahead of many of the greatest names at the position and a significant improvement from previous years. His true air distance per completion of 19.25 places him in 12th place. The NFL’s lowest percentage of passes of 20 yards or more were made by Niners quarterbacks (8.1%) prior to Purdy’s takeover in 2017.
Above all, Purdy has demonstrated proficiency in field goal taking. He is tied for sixth in touchdowns (six), eighth in yards per attempt (15.6), ninth in yards (779), eighth in completion percentage (52%), and eighth in QBR (93.2) among qualified quarterbacks on throws that travel more than 20 air yards.
