Just over 10 months after meeting with a Super Bowl spot on the line, the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles square off again at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday in another potential NFC championship game preview.
The Eagles defeated the 49ers 31-7 in a game that became quite uncomfortable to watch, with Brock Purdy notoriously suffering an elbow injury, his replacement getting a concussion, and the 49ers unable to execute any sort of a modern-day offense.
There’s already plenty of history and bad blood after 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel dubbed Eagles cornerback James Bradberry ‘trash’ following last year’s loss. Samuel has chosen to stand by his statements ahead of this game.
With those kinds of themes, Sunday’s rematch on FOX should be exciting, and our SmartRatings has it as the highest-rated game (72) on the schedule.
The NFC East-leading Eagles have won their last five games and have shown the tenacity of an NFL-best team, coming off impressive victories in a six-day span against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium and the Buffalo Bills in overtime last Sunday, both after rallying from 10-point halftime deficits.
Our model predicts that the Eagles will make the playoffs (100%), have a better than 50% chance of reaching the conference championship game (57.3%), and have a one-in-five chance of winning the Super Bowl (19.0%).
After entering their Week 9 bye on the heels of three consecutive losses, the NFC West-leading 49ers seem like they belong in the Super Bowl conversation once again, having won their previous three games by 31, 13, and 18 points. They now have a 98.8% chance of making the playoffs, a 35.2% chance of appearing in the conference championship game, and a 10.3% chance of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy, trailing just the Eagles and Dallas Cowboys (11.4%).
San Francisco travels in Philadelphia with three more days of recuperation after defeating Seattle 31-13 on Thanksgiving night to improve to 8-3 and clinch the No. 2 spot in the NFC. The Niners are two games behind the conference-leading Eagles, but a win would tighten things up atop the NFC and give them the all-important head-to-head tiebreaker over Philadelphia if they finish the season with the same record.
An Eagles win, however, would essentially end any chance for the 49ers to get the conference’s top seed, the coveted first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. The Eagles are 5-0 at the Linc and own a sparkling 10-1 record, yet sportsbooks have tabbed the 49ers as the favorites this Sunday. Our supercomputer, however, projects the Eagles to come away with a 21-20 victory. Since 2010, this is only the eighth time a team with a .800+ winning percentage is a home underdog this late into a season. Five of those previous seven instances, however, occurred in the final week of the season when playoff positioning was already locked up and the home team was resting starters and not too concerned with the outcome.
As a result, this is only the third occasion in the last 14 seasons that a club with a winning percentage of.800 or above has been a home underdog during NFL Weeks 13-16. The home underdog had lost the previous two times, with the 11-2 Pittsburgh Steelers falling 27-24 to the 10-3 New England Patriots in 2017 and the 9-2 Chiefs falling 35-28 to the 9-2 Denver Broncos in 2013.
Given how the Eagles have performed in recent weeks, it’s no wonder that the Niners are the favorite. Since Week 8, Philadelphia has allowed an NFL-low 429.8 yards per game while converting a league-high 51.5% of third-down attempts.
The Eagles have been outgained by 437 yards in the last four games, making them only the second team in NFL history to be outgained by 400 yards in four games and win all four, joining the 2020 Miami Dolphins.
The offense is struggling as well, faltering out of the gate and trailing at halftime in each of the last four games. However, the squad has shown remarkable tenacity, and Jalen Hurts and the offense have been able to overcome early troubles and move the ball when it matters the most.
