The San Francisco 49ers are precisely where they expected to be this far into the season.
Kyle Shanahan’s team is on a four-game winning streak and coming off one of the year’s most riveting victories, a 42-19 thrashing of the reigning NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles.
Memories of the Niners’ three-game losing streak in October appear to have faded, as the club now appears to be the most complete in the NFC.
San Francisco has won 10 straight division games dating back to the end of the 2021 season, a streak that will be tested Sunday when the 49ers play the Seattle Seahawks in a repeat of a Thanksgiving night thrashing.
After appearing to be in the playoffs earlier in the season, the Seahawks have lost their last three games to fall to 6-6 and need a quick turnaround against their division opponent.
Seattle’s faltering offense suddenly shone against the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 13. In a 41-35 loss, Geno Smith threw for 334 yards and three touchdowns, and DK Metcalf had 134 yards receiving and three touchdowns.
Smith, on the other hand, was given the questionable tag on Friday and will most likely be a game-time decision due to a groin injury sustained during practice.
With the 49ers vying for the top NFC spot and the Seahawks clinging to postseason chances, this divisional clash is one of the most fascinating of the weekend. Despite Seattle’s desperation, the 49ers are considered a juggernaut by bookies and our supercomputer.
San Francisco is an 11-point favorite, and our model agrees with the point spread, naming the 49ers as the best bets with an 82.5% chance of extending their winning streak to five games.
The 49ers would be strong favorites over everyone, with our supercomputer giving them a league-best 21.1% chance of winning the Super Bowl – especially at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, where they have won 16 of their previous 18 regular-season games.
So, how can Seattle pull off the upset? That would almost certainly necessitate another offensive explosion.
SEA Key: Stay Balanced on Offense
Pete Carroll rose to prominence as a defensive coach, and his legendary Legion of Boom unit earned him a Super Bowl ring.
This year’s defense, on the other hand, is a far cry from the Richard Sherman-led squads of the previous decade. Over the last six games, Seattle’s defense has allowed an average of 28.7 points.
The Seahawks’ opponent success percentage of 37.8% is about league average, but those figures were bolstered by good early-season performances against failing offenses.
Given the 49ers’ recent scoring outburst, Seattle will need to produce points to stay in this game, and the issue will begin with offensive coordinator Shane Waldron’s ability to keep the San Francisco defense guessing.
Running back Kenneth Walker III has missed the last two games due to an oblique injury, and the Seahawks have produced 3.4 rushing yards per designed run play, which is considerably below the league average of 4.1.
While youngster Zach Charbonnet has shown promise, the Seahawks will be hoping that Walker’s return to practice on Thursday bodes well for his prospects against the 49ers.
Since drafting Walker in the second round last year, the Seahawks are 8-1 when he has at least 100 yards from scrimmage and 1-5 when he either does not play or has less than 70 yards of offense.
Though it’s critical to get the ground game going, the Seahawks shouldn’t overlook their success throwing the ball on early downs.
With weapons like Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the ‘Hawks have an above-average passing attack overall if Smith is able to play, ranking 11th in the NFL with a 41.5% success rate on passing plays.
When throwing on first down, Seattle’s success rate climbs to 48.6% (sixth in the league). When you include in Smith’s 74.5 completion rate on play-action concepts, it’s evident that Seattle will need to be unexpected on the play sheet throughout the game.
% of First Down Pass Plays Gaining 4+ Yds
San Francisco 49ers (66.5)
Seattle Seahawks (61.7)
Jacksonville Jaguars (61.0)
Miami Dolphins (60.1)
Buffalo Bills (60.1)
SF Key: Unleash Brock Purdy
It may appear to be an oversimplification, but the 49ers follow Brock Purdy wherever he goes.
Purdy has thrown 20 touchdowns and one interception in San Francisco’s nine wins this season. He has three touchdowns and five turnovers through the air in the team’s three losses.
Purdy, formerly regarded as a valiant underdog and game manager, is suddenly a co-favorite for MVP (along with Dak Prescott) in most sportsbooks, and he has the offense humming.
While Christian McCaffrey is a legitimate MVP candidate, Seattle’s defense has performed marginally better against the run this season than against the pass.
Purdy’s league-leading 70.2 completion % and the 49ers’ ability to run after the catch with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle have gotten plenty of attention this season, but his ability to throw the long ball has gone unnoticed.
He’s shredded defenses with the long ball, posting a 139.7 passer rating on attempts of 21 yards or more down the field.
Passer Rating on Attempts of 21+ Yards
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (143.4)
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (139.7)
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (135.4)
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (128.5)
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (122.6)
The deep ball might be especially effective against a Seattle team that ranks 21st in the NFL against attempts of at least 21 yards downfield and has an opponent passer rating of 99.7.
It appears impossible to locate a flaw in San Francisco’s offense. The 49ers not only lead the league in overall success rate (47.0%), but they also lead the league in rushing (43.9%) and passing success (49.6%).
By creating leads and making opponents to play from behind, the Niners have been able to turn this top-tier offense into an advantageous game script. This season, teams have run the ball on only 30.9% of second-half plays against the 49ers, allowing San Francisco’s formidable pass rush to unleash and close the game.
And, while Nick Bosa’s eight sacks may not appear to signal a spectacular season, he is putting pressure on quarterbacks on 24.8% of dropbacks. This is the most in the NFL among edge defenders who have played at least 100 pass rush snaps.
The Seahawks have several strong weapons, especially if Walker is able to return, and they have the capacity to keep this game close.
But it only takes a few plays to set off the 49ers’ avalanche, and a few mistakes may sink Seattle against arguably the league’s most gifted squad.
