With the Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Houston Texans all having 8-6 records, the AFC South playoff competition has tightened to a point. In spite of dropping their last two games in a row, the Jaguars’ hopes of making the playoffs remain strong.
The simplest route to the postseason is to win out, as you will have the tiebreaker over the Colts and Texans. Jacksonville will receive the fourth seed in the AFC playoff picture and host the wild-card round if they win three straight games. With games against the Tennessee Titans, Carolina Panthers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers coming up, this isn’t completely out of the question.
The toughest obstacle will come from the Buccaneers, a Florida squad that has been playing exceptionally well and is undefeated in December. The New York Times reports that the Jaguars’ chances of making the playoffs drop from 71% to 53% if they lose against the Buccaneers. In that scenario, a wild-card seed would make more and more sense.
The Jaguars have a 94% probability of making the playoffs if they win two of their next three games. Losing two of three reduces their chances to 36 percent.
The Texans’ remaining schedule, which includes games against the Cleveland Browns, Titans, and Colts, is more challenging in terms of the division. Conversely, the Colts play the Texans to close off the season before taking on the Atlanta Falcons and Las Vegas Raiders.
The Colts and Texans’ clash in Week 18 will probably determine who advances to the postseason. The Colts prevailed 31-20 in Week 2 of their first meeting between the two clubs. Since then, with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud leading the way, the Texans have clicked.
The Jaguars would play the Cleveland Browns, who have a 9-5 record and are ranked fifth in the playoff standings, if the postseason started today. But in an only three weeks, a lot may happen.
