The 49ers enter the conference championship having not played their best football in more than seven weeks when they routed the Eagles. San Francisco will need to recapture that level of execution Sunday against Detroit to make the Super Bowl.
The Niners are favored by seven over the Lions as a nod to the season.
The trenches are the key. Some matchups are a victory if the Niners can just avoid disaster, others must be won on critical downs to take the game.
Jonah Jackson, a left guard for Detroit, is sidelined due to a knee injury. He was selected to the 2022 Pro Bowl and was rated by Pro Football Focus as the fifth-best offensive tackle in the Divisional Round. Kayide Awosika, a second-year professional who Detroit acquired off the Eagles practice squad in September as an undrafted free agent, will take his spot.
Frank Ragnow, an All-Pro center, is hurt in his back, ankle, knee, and toe. He was fully functional during Friday’s practice in spite of his injuries.
Jahmyr Gibbs has been patiently developed by Detroit, which has been waiting for the ideal opportunity to properly release him on the league. That time is now.
DVOA compares output by down and distance to the league average. On defense, a smaller number is preferable.
The 49ers’ defensive ends perform a subpar job of establishing the edge, and last week’s safeties struggled to stop the run.
The Lions, like the Niners, often run out of three wide receiver sets and like to employ their skill players as blockers. In order to position their OL against the secondary, Detroit’s receivers go after the front seven.
In order to make the tackle and rush the ball, the Niners need to be adept at shedding blocks in this game. In addition, they’ll be watching for huge performances from Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave inside versus Ragnow and Awosika.
Gibbs had 114 yards of total offense versus Tampa Bay, averaging 8.2 yards per carry. Gibbs is a Detroit strength against the Niners’ main defensive vulnerability, so the Niners must contain him.
Strength on strength is what passes. With more than 25% of his passes made in the middle of the field, Jared Goff led the league in pass attempts. But when it comes to pass coverage across the middle, the Niners lead the league.
With a high-low style of play in the red zone and receiving targets spaced around every five yards, Ben Johnson designs his offense to layer the field vertically. On second and third downs, he also like flooding areas with clear-out routes to release tight end Sam LaPorta beneath. The Niners need to play zone coverage with strong discipline.
The Niners safeties must be acute because Johnson has numerous methods to exploit the San Francisco linebackers. Logan Ryan, who struggled to score points against the Packers, is anticipated to be replaced in the starting lineup by Ji’Ayir Brown.
Nick Bosa will take against All-Pro tackle Penei Sewell in a great battle. Wilks may try to use antics more regularly to get Bosa against Ragnow and Awosika because Ragnow will be confined laterally.
Although Goff’s performance against pressure has improved after moving to Detroit, it is still a problem since he is ranked in the middle of the league in this regard. Goff’s terrible footwork in avoiding pressure is his issue.
Given that Goff leads the league in QBR when operating out of the pocket, San Francisco must apply pressure. The Niners front four must not allow themselves to be as exposed as they were against Green Bay.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is being moved around by the Lions, and Detroit is aiming to acquire Ambry Thomas. Jameson Williams may also target Thomas in the deep end, although Goff is 30th in the league in deep attempt percentage.
The Lions plan to run Gibbs wide and go after St. Brown and LaPorta in the middle. In order to eliminate the run and play action, the Niners will try to seize the lead in the second half.
It will be crucial to convert red zone touchdowns and commit turnovers. Detroit has the fifth-best red zone defense. Goff has been intercepted by the Niners in four straight games, including three pick-sixes.
Brock Purdy’s first priority is to play clean. The Niners can’t afford to give up short fields to the Lions and turn the ball over since Detroit is so potent in the red zone.
In games where Purdy does not throw a pick, the 49ers are unbeaten.
Right tackle Colton McKivitz faces Detroit edge Aidan Hutchinson, who has eight sacks and eighteen pressures in his last four games, in a matchup that is concerning. McKivitz, at six feet six, is used to having a height advantage, but Hutchinson is faster, more dexterous, and an inch higher. Hutchinson employs spin maneuvers to counter McKivitz’s use of forceful hands to win.
Chris Foerster and Kyle Shanahan must devise a pass-protection plan that provides McKivitz with some assistance. This year, they’ve managed to neutralize Aaron Donald, Myles Garrett, and Micah Parsons. Although that was back in the season opener, T.J. Watt had three sacks. Hutchinson, a trip to the Super Bowl is at stake right now.
In terms of blitz frequency, Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn is ranked fourth in the league. Ife Melifonwu, a safety, is his most potent blitzer; in the last six games, he has 4.5 sacks. When playing Baltimore, the Niners had trouble executing corner blitzes.
With Brandon Aiyuk leading the league in yards per target while the quarterback is under pressure, the 49ers boast the best offense in the league against pressure. Detroit’s secondary is weak; it ranks 30th in terms of yards to wide receivers and yards against per dropback.
It’s also important to note that Detroit is ranked 28th in missed tackles, even with Deebo Samuel expected to play.
Although Cam Sutton and Kindle Vildor, the Lions’ outside corners, are vulnerable, rookie Brian Branch makes an outstanding nickel corner for the team. Detroit has allowed the top receiver to catch almost 10 passes for 178 yards per game and more than 373 yards passing in their last five games.
Purdy and Aiyuk both perform well against man coverage, yet Detroit plays the sixth-highest rate of man coverage in the league.
Detroit had the best run defense DVOA in the league and allowed just 11 big plays of 15 yards or more. Shanahan should still be able to attend the run despite that. The NFL’s top left tackle in the run game is Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey leads the league in running, and the Niners receivers provide the finest blocking group. It should be profitable to test strength on strength.
Now that Gibbs has been let loose, Detroit’s offense poses a significant threat. The Niners front four now have a chance to disrupt Detroit’s running game and get to Goff thanks to Jonah Jackson’s injury. The Niners’ significant investment on the defensive line must pay off on the downs that matter most in this game.
On offense, the Niners will prevail if Hutchinson can be neutralized, but he’s currently playing some of his best game. There is a clear mismatch between the Detroit secondary and the Niners receivers. Purdy and Aiyuk are on their game if Glenn tries to change that. This is high-scoring, in my opinion, and Detroit is unable to get the crucial stop with the game on the line.
