Josh Allen had one of the best 2023 seasons of any pass rusher. According to TruMedia, he was tied for second in pressure rate, second in sacks, and third in quarterback hits.
He was hanging with the best of the best overall because the guys he tied within those categories weren’t the same.
The previous seventh-overall pick, who assumed a full-time job in 2021, has steadily grown with each season of his development process.
Being a free agent this offseason, his ascent to the top is well-timed. He will be one of the most sought-after players if he decides to enter the market. In either case, a significant raise is in store for the 6-foot-5, 255-pound pass rusher.
Similar to our analysis of Tee Higgins, we will examine some of Allen’s top free agency options.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The most probable outcome is that Allen is tagged and decides to stay with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Superstar players occupying expensive positions are rarely allowed to leave by teams during free agency.
The Jaguars would tag Allen as a linebacker; the projected defensive end tag is $23.3 million. According to Over The Cap (OTC), Allen’s estimated franchise tag would be $21.9 million. Let me now take a moment to bemoan the fact that players are still being tagged by the NFL as defensive ends and linebackers rather than as edge rushers and off-ball linebackers. The year is 2024.
The Baltimore Ravens could lose a significant portion of their pass rush in 2023. After developing into a potent interior presence and tying Allen with 33 quarterback hits, Justin Madabuike will be available as a free agent.
The Ravens have performed admirably in the background, making the most of inexpensive veterans like Kyle Van Noy and Jadeveon Clowney, who will both become free agents.
Four of the top five Baltimore defenders in terms of quarterback hits are not expected to be in the starting lineup in 2024.
As the Ravens haven’t had a top edge rusher since Matt Judon, they may acquire one rather than assembling a pass rush with veterans.
In the past, Baltimore frequently lets free agents depart and replaces them with a number of less expensive choices. Nevertheless, having a standout player on the edge should make things simpler for new defensive coordinator Zach Orr now that Mike Macdonald is gone.
Similar to the Jaguars, the Ravens lack financial space and would have to make place for an Allen contract; although, doing so would be a little bit simpler if Allen’s contract was for a low Year 1 amount on a long-term agreement.
Los Angeles Rams
Byron Young, a rookie third-round selection, made an early impression. In terms of early-down pressures, he ranked 28th out of all defenders with 19 quarterback hits. Young was portrayed by Michael Hoecht. Although he has been entertaining to watch, the 310-pound former interior lineman was frequently singled out for abuse in coverage.
Because of Allen’s ability to drop into coverage, no team is signing him. But the ends need to have that talent in their toolbox for many of the league’s five-man front teams.
Eighty-five percent of Allen’s pass snaps in 2023 were rushed passes. Hoecht only made 78.8 percent of his pass snaps, compared to Young’s 78.8 percent.
The Los Angeles Rams promoted linebackers coach and pass-rush coordinator Chris Shula to defensive coordinator in Raheem Morris’ absence. Numerous components of Los Angeles’ defense might remain unchanged with an internal promotion.
The Rams may be trying to develop a young defense in order to maximize the potential of an aging offense after exceeding expectations in 2023. By snap-weighted age, Los Angeles’ defense was the seventh-youngest and its offensive the sixth-oldest this season. Because of their large number of rookie contracts, the team also spent the least on defense in the league.
The Rams rank 13th in terms of effective cap space with roughly $27 million, which may enable them to pursue free agents more aggressively than in the past. Los Angeles’ defense could be able to compete with the top offenses in the league if it had players like Allen, Kobie Turner, Aaron Donald, and Young on the defensive end.
The Seattle Seahawks
One of the more entertaining player-coach combinations that could occur is Macdonald with Allen. As was noted in the Ravens section, Macdonald worked wonderfully to extract performance out of players that were routinely schemed as plus-pass rushers, like Clowney and Van Noy.
Despite ranking 12th in pressure rate during the regular season, the Seattle Seahawks lacked players who could step up to play a dominant defensive line role. Seattle’s pressure rate fell to 27th place on third downs.
Though he had an outstanding nine sacks, Boye Mafe was only 53rd in QB hits despite being the team’s best edge rusher. In Macdonald’s defense, Mafe should be freed regardless, but combining him with Allen could increase his impact.
With Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen in the secondary, the Seahawks already have a strong unit. With Macdonald in charge, Witherspoon, who is already among the most dynamic defensive players in the game, might reach new heights.
Therefore, adding a top pass rusher could likewise increase the back end’s force. This would make it more common for opposing quarterbacks to get the ball out under duress.
This would be one of the more difficult fits in terms of money. Although Seattle is expected to be overcap, the Seahawks might be in great cap health with a few releases and restructurings.
Washington Commanders
The Washington Commanders, who acquired Montez Sweat and Chase Young at the deadline, are the team that most needs pass rushers. James Smith-Williams and Casey Toohill assumed the starting edge rusher roles following those moves. But both are expected to be unrestricted free agents.
With the highest effective cap space in the league at roughly $63 million, Washington may be considering spending some free agency cash. Although the Commanders need to cover gaps in the defense, their primary priority would be to get a pass rusher at the top of the market.
Micah Parsons has been developing as a pass rusher with the Dallas Cowboys for the last few years under the tutelage of new Washington coach Dan Quinn. Allen isn’t going to be Parsons, but he’s not that far away either.
Similar to Parsons, Allen can maneuver around the formation and exploit opposing opponents’ quickness off the line. Allen would be able to quickly reassemble Washington’s potent defensive front, which has been the team’s mainstay for the last few seasons, when teamed with Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne.
