This week, a report said that the Jaguars were considering a trade for Brandon Aiyuk, the standout wide receiver for the San Francisco 49ers. We can only take the notion and run with it as we have no proof that this information is 100% accurate. This is how the fictitious trade appeared:
The fan base debated whether or not they should have closed this deal as a result of this. It seemed like most fans were opposed to it for a variety of reasons. The agreement
Three main groups characterized the general opposition to the trade:
I disagree with each of those three statements. The loss of Calvin Ridley to the Tennessee Titans left the Jaguars looking like a team without a clue. When the time arrived and the Titans made Ridley an offer he couldn’t turn down, their plan appeared to be a brilliant one.
The team would benefit greatly from signing Gabe Davis as a free agent. I adore his capacity to undermine a defense. With his much faster game than Jones’, I’m excited that Trevor will finally have a weapon capable of outpacing the defense by several steps. In addition, his 6’2″ frame makes him an excellent target in the red zone. Josh Allen found him to be a great option for scramble drills.
Nevertheless, that is still a specialized function. This offense needs a real X receiver, and he isn’t one in the NFL. The Jaguars cannot afford to have Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Gabe Davis as their starting wide receiver trio in 2024. Go ahead and Christian Kirk. Enter Brandon Aiyuk
Bring on Brandon Aiyuk. He is a top receiver in this league and is a lot safer option than taking a chance with pick 17 in April. It might be worthwhile to calculate the salary cap later.
Argument 1
The number of individuals who actually believe Brandon Aiyuk is a system receiver astounds me. He was viewed as an excellent route runner with burst and athleticism who could create after the catch going into the 2020 draft. The scouts were spot on on this one, and he has carried over all of those talents into his professional game.
In his career, Aiyuk has averaged just under 100 targets per season.
It is undeniable that he has been given so many targets in an offense that also has Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel, even though the 49ers score a lot and run a lot of plays. To watch McCaffrey play and label him a system running back would be ridiculous. Just observe Aiyuk run these routes and let me know which ones are system outputs:
All three defensive levels are won by Aiyuk. You cannot train his twitch to jolt opponents at the top of his routes. He can triumph through speed, contested receptions, or routes. In the end, he exposes himself.
Based on his statistics, he has gotten better each year of his career. His use over the past two seasons has convinced me that the coaching staff believes in him and is really pleased with his progress. He managed to force touches in a heavy attack once more.
A novel metric that quantifies the number of first downs a receiver earns on each route run caught my attention. Here is a summary of it, followed by the top 10 players according to this www.fantasypoints.com measure.
“To calculate 1D/RR, just divide the total number of first downs a player has by the total number of routes they have run. A receiver’s ability to run their route, reach a target, and turn it into a high-value reception that moves their team’s field position is measured in first downs.
Because skilled receivers will do this more frequently, we can calculate an overall measure of wide receiver talent and effectiveness by dividing by the total number of routes, which accounts for the volume of opportunities.
Quite a remarkable group of men. The fact that Aiyuk is the lone 49er on this list interests me. Despite their presence on this list, none of the Dolphins receivers is considered a system wide receiver. Nico Collins is the system receiver if there is one on this list. Before Bobby Slowik and C.J. Stroud arrived, he had a rather ordinary appearance.
All of that is said without even bringing up the fact that Brandon Aiyuk comes in second on this list! Aiyuk has a 49.7% route victory rate, a 1.9% drop rate, and an average target separation of 1.78 yards, per www.playerprofiler.com. All three of those figures surpass the results that Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley recorded in those same stats the previous year. Christian Kirk’s 48.6% route win percentage in man (seventh in the league) would be a great complement to Aiyuk’s 57.3% route win rate in zone. Aiyuk is one of this league’s best receivers, in my opinion.
Concerning the actual trade price? It fits perfectly with the last five huge wide receiver transactions that we have witnessed lately. They are as follows:
In this league, you have to pay to have a proven WR1, and for a player with Aiyuk’s caliber of talent, the 49ers’ asking price is reasonable in this case. especially with Zay Jones being the throw-in instead of another choice.
Argument 2
A long-term extension for Brandon Aiyuk is a requirement of trading for him. I recognize that many fans are waiting on this. Although Aiyuk would command close to $25 million annually, there is already a lot of money tied up in the wide receiver room. I won’t make any assumptions about the conditions of his contract. I don’t get that. Whatever the case, now that Trevor Lawrence is in his final “cheap” year, it’s imperative to act now and worry about the rest later.
After the Jaguars are forced to start paying Lawrence a significant amount of money, this riddle will appear to be much more difficult. Good players must be traded or allowed to walk away from any good team in the league. It is the result of having so much skill that you are unable to support it all. Indeed, after next season, this deal would probably result in the loss of a player like Walker Little, Andre Cisco, or Tyson Campbell. Perhaps two of them, but when was the last time that “too much talent” was an issue in this place?
In one area, Trent Baalke deserves praise from me: the way he has handled his contract structures. He has been incredibly successful in controlling individual cap hits without jeopardizing the club. Although Baalke doesn’t always get the proper player to sign a contract, the squad is rarely left in a precarious situation once he leaves. When necessary, he has also done a superb job of rearranging the players.
Two recent instances of Baalke’s excellent contract management are the reorganization of Brandon Scherff and the contracts for Arik Armstead. Baalke should be able to sort out the cap if I have any faith in him to do so.
You may simply opt out of the contracts of Cam Robinson, Brandon Scherff, and Foye Oluokun after the season, as their combined cap hit for the upcoming 2024 season is $55.5 million. That’s enough money falling out of the books, plus an additional annual wage ceiling hike of about ten percent, to convince me that paying Aiyuk and Lawrence makes sense.
Argument 3
There is risk in the draft. Clearly. A few individuals selected in the first round of this year’s draft will undoubtedly have unsuccessful NFL careers. Getting a rookie wide receiver in the first round and keeping him under contract for the next five seasons is a notion that I find incredibly appealing. That’s actually my first choice!
Adonai Mitchell is a guy who appears to be generating a lot of momentum and whose draft position may be in the late teens. He reminds me of Ceedee Lamb, which is why I adore him as a player. Is he really that good? Yes, but regrettably, there’s a significant chance that he isn’t very skilled at all. That is how the business operates.
A player may “bust” for a variety of reasons, many of which have nothing to do with skill or even football.
The NFL draft is too unpredictable to predict with certainty that selection 17 will hold the key. The Eagles had the 21st pick in the 2020 draft while they were in the running. A receiver was required. Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jalen Raegor are the top three players on the board. At pick 22, directly behind them, they clearly selected Raegor, leaving Jefferson on a silver platter for the Vikings. The Vikings will always be grateful to Jefferson for falling so far below everyone’s expectations.
What caused Jefferson to fall? worries that he is a product of being a part of the best collegiate offense ever, along with Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. Instead of the individual, they scouted the offense. Do you recognize this? Here, I want to reduce the amount of risk. No matter the position, a flopped first round pick will cost this team more in the long term than paying Brandon Aiyuk given where they are right now.
Additionally, keep in mind that none of us—you, me, or your preferred Twitter general manager—will be choosing the winner in April. In the case of Baalke’s draft record, the evidence speaks for itself. Where has he been able to succeed? primarily the defense and the trenches. Where has he made the biggest mistake? Wide receiver. A list that Baalke has compiled of receivers:
Ronald Johnson (2011 Rd 6)
A.J. Jenkins (2012 Rd 1)
Quentin Patton (2013 Rd 4)
Bruce Ellington (2014 Rd 4)
DeAndre Smelter (2015 Rd 4)
Aaron Burbridge (2016 Rd 6)
Jalen Camp (2021 Rd 6)
Parker Washington (2023 Rd 6)
Here are two conclusions to draw. Baalke doesn’t swing at the receiver too soon, to start. As a General Manager, he has only selected a receiver before round four once in nine drafts, demonstrating that this is not consistent with his draft philosophy. Second, he simply lacks a keen eye for receiver scouting. Parker Washington has the best chance of any receiver selected by Baalke, for whatever reason. Grab Brandon Aiyuk, the sure thing, and utilize the remaining picks to give this club the depth it needs.
This move would be a huge win for me. In addition to using Baalke’s advantages as a general manager, the Jaguars would have a reliable outside receiver to partner with Trevor for the long run, and it would save another catastrophe that would only cause this team to lose more ground. Would you agree to the deal?
