Detroit Lions’ Postseason Outlook Shifts Once Again
Regardless of what unfolded during the NFL slate on Sunday, December 7, the week already qualified as a success for the Detroit Lions. Their impressive 44–30 victory over the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football (December 4) quieted critics and pushed their record to 8–5, keeping Detroit firmly in the playoff race.
Although Thursday’s matchup carried weight for both sides, it held a bit more significance for Detroit, which entered the game with a stronger mathematical shot at reaching the postseason.
Sunday brought another pivotal contest—this time within the NFC North. The division-leading Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers squared off, with the Packers emerging victorious, 28–21. Their outcome didn’t just reshape the division standings for those two franchises; it also had meaningful implications for the Lions, who sit third in the NFC North.
Detroit’s win over Dallas locked them into a 54% chance of making the postseason, and that number remains stable. But the dynamics around them changed. With Green Bay’s victory, the Lions are now only one game behind Chicago, creating extra stakes for Detroit’s Week 18 matchup against the Bears. At the moment, the Packers hold a commanding 94% playoff probability, while Chicago sits at 64%.
The Bears and Packers meet again in two weeks in what could be a decisive moment—not just for the division, but for Detroit’s hopes. For Lions fans, the ideal scenario is that one of those rivals drops both of their upcoming head-to-head battles, even if that means rooting for the Packers again down the line.
Meanwhile, Detroit faces a tough assignment on Sunday, December 14, when they take on Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams. A win there would significantly strengthen their postseason chances.
How the Rest of the League Is Shaping Up
Elsewhere in the division, the Minnesota Vikings pummeled the Washington Commanders 31–0 on December 7, improving their record to 5–8. Despite the dominant victory, Minnesota’s playoff odds remain under 1%.
Across the NFL, several teams appear to be virtual locks for the postseason as Week 14 concludes. The New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks, and Jacksonville Jaguars all boast extremely strong postseason projections. Both the Patriots and Broncos sit above a 99% probability, while the Seahawks are close behind at 97%.
With these franchises surging, this year’s playoff picture is shaping up differently from the familiar championship matchups fans have grown accustomed to. On the opposite end, several teams have already been mathematically eliminated from contention: the Jets, Raiders, Saints, Browns, Falcons, Titans, Cardinals, Giants, and Commanders.
So, while it may feel early to talk about playoff scenarios, many teams have already sealed their fate—for better or worse.
