February 19, 2026
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The Kentucky basketball program seemed to be on the rise just a week ago.

The Wildcats had triumphed in eight of their nine games, including wins over Tennessee and Arkansas. A week later: Following consecutive defeats against Florida and a faltering Georgia team, Kentucky is now on Bubble Watch, according to ESPN.

In all honesty, Neil Paine of ESPN still believes that Kentucky is highly likely to make the tournament, but it is no longer a foregone conclusion as it was a week prior.

He had this to say about Kentucky.

After beating Tennessee on February 7 for their eighth victory in nine games, the Wildcats had entered “lock” territory, according to the forecast models. However, they subsequently suffered two losses to Florida and Georgia at home on Tuesday, which reduced their chances to 94%—still a good percentage, but enough to warrant more Bubble Watching. Additionally, their resume (five Quadrant 1 victories, including three Quadrant 1A, which is enough to place 27th in the nation in our resume average) is still around sixth-best in the SEC, which is expected to send nine or ten teams to the competition. As a result, they are currently far above the risk zone. According to the BPI, their toughest remaining schedule in the country may be that they face Quadrant 1 opponents in four out of five games (three against Quadrant 1A).

Even if the season started today, Kentucky would still be in the field. However, considering the rest of the schedule, the Cats will probably need to win one or two games when they are underdogs in order to feel confident going into Selection Sunday.

The Cats still have road games against Texas A&M, Auburn, and South Carolina, as well as home contests against Vanderbilt and Florida.

Coming in the middle of a challenging stretch of games to conclude the regular season, the loss against Georgia is undoubtedly painful, but Kentucky has the opportunity to score some significant victories during this stretch as well.

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