Pro Picks: Chiefs, Bills, Lions, and Eagles to Reach Conference Championship
The NFL’s road to the final four will feature seven out of the eight division-winning teams. Patrick Mahomes and the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs will kick off the divisional round on Saturday against the Houston Texans and rookie QB C.J. Stroud.
Later on Saturday night, Jayden Daniels, the rookie sensation leading the Washington Commanders, will face the top-seeded Detroit Lions. Daniels was instrumental in helping Washington upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their wild-card win.
On Sunday, Saquon Barkley and the Philadelphia Eagles will host the Los Angeles Rams, who are coming off a short week after a Monday night win. The Sunday slate concludes with a high-stakes matchup between Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens and Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills.
According to Bet MGM Sportsbook, three of the home teams are favored by more than six points.
Kansas City Chiefs (Line: Chiefs -8 1/2) vs. Houston Texans
The Chiefs, looking to secure a third consecutive Super Bowl title, begin their playoff journey against the Houston Texans, who recently pulled off a 32-12 upset over the Los Angeles Chargers. Stroud played an impressive game, making big throws and a key 27-yard run, while the Texans’ defense overwhelmed Justin Herbert with four interceptions, including two from cornerback Derek Stingley. If Stroud and the offense avoid mistakes, along with a strong running game from Joe Mixon, Houston could have a shot at shocking the Chiefs.
The Chiefs beat Houston 27-19 in Week 16, a game where they lost wide receiver Tank Dell to a knee injury. Patrick Mahomes has been in excellent form, throwing 11 touchdowns and no interceptions over his last six games. After a bye week, the Chiefs will need to shake off any rust as they look to extend their strong playoff run, where they are undefeated in the divisional round under Mahomes.
However, despite their dominance in the playoffs, Kansas City has struggled against the spread as heavy favorites, holding a 22-32-3 record when favored by at least seven points under Mahomes.
Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions
The Commanders are known for their clutch performances, winning five straight games that came down to the wire, including a wild-card win against Tampa Bay. Daniels has developed strong chemistry with receivers Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown, but Washington will need a better running game from Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler to stay competitive against the high-powered Detroit offense.
The Lions, featuring a strong offense led by Jared Goff and All-Pro wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown, might also see the return of running back David Montgomery, providing a boost to their already potent rushing attack. Detroit’s offense could be even more dangerous with a two-headed backfield alongside Jahmyr Gibbs.
The No. 1 seeds have been disappointing against the spread in the divisional round, with a 3-5 record since the NFL expanded to 14 playoff teams. Historically, wild-card round underdogs have had a tough time in the divisional round, with a 2-20 straight-up record.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams
After a three-week break, Jalen Hurts returned with a solid performance, leading the Eagles to a 22-10 victory over the Packers. The Rams, who eliminated the Vikings in impressive fashion with a nine-sack game, will have their hands full trying to stop Hurts and Philadelphia’s high-powered offense. With a solid offensive line and running back Saquon Barkley coming off a record-setting performance, the Eagles’ ground game will be key to their success.
Defensively, the Eagles’ top-ranked unit will be tested by Rams head coach Sean McVay’s game plan and quarterback Matthew Stafford, who previously had success against Philadelphia’s defense. However, playing in the cold at Lincoln Financial Field in January presents a unique challenge for the Rams.
Despite the travel disadvantage, McVay has had success on short rest, with a 16-7 record against the spread in such situations. But the Eagles’ strong home playoff record and all-around game will make it tough for Los Angeles.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
The marquee matchup of the weekend features Lamar Jackson’s Ravens against Josh Allen’s Bills. Baltimore dominated Buffalo in a 35-10 win earlier in the season. This time, the Ravens are road favorites, indicating a lack of respect for the Bills at home. Buffalo’s defense will have to step up to slow down Jackson and running back Derrick Henry, while the Ravens’ defense faces a tall task trying to contain Allen and running back James Cook.
Buffalo will rely on the pressure from defensive standouts like Greg Rousseau, Von Miller, and Ed Oliver to contain Jackson. At the same time, rookie cornerback Nate Wiggins will have an intriguing battle against Bills rookie receiver Keon Coleman.
The Bills are looking to break a three-year playoff drought in the divisional round and return to the AFC Championship, but they’ll need to improve upon their previous showing against Baltimore.
